Is a nuclear power plant on the edge of China’s 60 million-strong Pearl River Delta megalopolis on the verge of an emergency? It doesn’t look like it — but that doesn’t mean there’s no cause for concern:

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… via @bopinion
@bopinion The worrying thing in this incident isn't the leak of nuclear fission products, but the leak of information.

It shouldn't require CNN, the U.S. Department of Energy, and a French utility to tell the world what's going on at a Chinese power station.
@bopinion The most important part of the CNN report, IMO, isn't the raw information about a nuclear fuel leak (which seems pretty routine) but the insight we get about how nuclear regulation appears to be conducted in China:

amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/06/14…

https://t.co/S5QVtEoykH
@bopinion If confirmed, this seems to me to look like clear evidence of regulatory capture -- the nuclear regulator relaxing safety standards because the imperative of keeping up supply to the grid. Image
@bopinion The leak itself doesn't seem that worrying on the evidence we have so far. Nuclear power plants have multiple redundant safety systems to ensure that this sort of low-level problem doesn't develop into a Chernobyl or Fukushima.
@bopinion The insight into the regulatory and safety culture in China, on the other hand, is more of a concern. Lax cultures captured by the industry were a characteristic of the failures that led to Chernobyl and Fukushima.
@bopinion China isn't known for the sort of fearless, independent, transparent regulation free of political interference that you really need to operate a huge nuclear power fleet without incident. Fixing that is as important as fixing the damaged fuel rods at the Taishan reactor. (ends)

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More from @davidfickling

13 Jun
Solar panel prices are rising for the first time in years thanks to the surging cost of polysilicon.

If the solar industry doesn't deal with its Xinjiang problem, this could be just the start:

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Polysilicon is the key raw material for solar power. The core of a solar panel is a thin slice of polysilicon.

About 45% of the world's polysilicon comes from Xinjiang, and three of the four biggest producers have alleged links to the forced labour of Uyghur minorities.
Polysilicon prices right now are at their highest levels in 2012.

This is quite a big deal. Persistent high prices (of up to $450/kg) for polysilicon during the 2000s are probably the main reason no one expected solar power to get cheap back then.
Read 15 tweets
10 Jun
Is Mongolia's remarkable democratic experiment in danger after the ruling party consolidated its power in Wednesday's presidential elections?

Not just yet: bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
We don't, IMO, talk enough about Mongolia's success story. While other central Asian republics drifted into authoritarianism after the fall of the USSR, it's built a robust and lively democracy with a booming economy:
Still, despite high scores for things like democratic and press freedoms, corruption is rife and the past few years have seen a rolling constitutional crisis as the Mongolian People's Party and Democratic Party have duked it out for supremacy.
Read 10 tweets
7 Jun
Brilliant report on a crucial moment in the history of Australia:
On the question of how the smallpox scabs made their way out from the First Fleet's medical supplies, it's worth pointing out that there were expert lock-pickers among the convicts: gutenberg.net.au/ebooks/e00084.… Image
Convicts and soldiers were the ones coming into often fatal conflict with the local Dharug and Eora so it would hardly be surprising if some of them hatched a plan to shift the field of battle in their favour.
Read 5 tweets
3 Jun
Will China's switch to a three-child policy reverse imminent population decline and knock-on effects throughout the world?

@anjani_trivedi, @ClaraDFMarques, @Moss_Eco and I will be on @TwitterSpaces at 9pm NY Thursday/9am HK Friday to discuss. Here's a quick introductory 🧵:
@anjani_trivedi @ClaraDFMarques @Moss_Eco @TwitterSpaces China this week announced that all families would be allowed to have up to three children, after a previous relaxation of its four-decade-old one-child policy in 2015 failed to spark a sustained increase in births:

globaltimes.cn/page/202105/12…
@anjani_trivedi @ClaraDFMarques @Moss_Eco @TwitterSpaces It's hardly surprising that the 2015 measures failed. Even countries without China's legacy of extreme anti-natalist policies struggle to lift fertility rates once they fall below replacement levels of 2.1 births per mother.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Read 23 tweets
31 May
The problem with China's plans to shut down crypto mining?

Bitcoin is now Too Big To Fail in Xinjiang, where Beijing wants the economy running hot to distract from its oppression of Muslim minorities:
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Quick way to show this:

BTC ⚡ consumption: ~120TWh digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy…

Xinjiang share of hashrate: ~1/3 ie 40TWh: cbeci.org/mining_map

Xinjiang ⚡ generation: 400TWh: xinhuanet.com/english/2021-0…

So Bitcoin mining alone is about 10% of Xinjiang's electricity consumption.
That's not counting what is spent on cooling data centers (substantial in the hot summers, though a lot of mines are moved to Sichuan in those months to take advantage of cheap hydro) or what is spent on non-Bitcoin crypto.
Read 11 tweets
21 May
It's funny/infuriating that while @ARKInvest et al are spinning an impossible story about crypto mines as a key source of demand for low load-factor renewables, in the real world crypto mines are now a key source of demand for high load-factor fossil fuels.
Load factor is the share of time that a generator is producing electricity.

At the upper end it's roughly:

Nuclear: 90%
Fossil fuels: 85%
Hydro: ~70%
Offshore wind: 60%
Onshore wind: 40%
Solar: 25%
There's nothing wrong with low load factor, and given the spread of renewables technologies and the ability of grids with storage to balance the supply of power through the day with highly variable loads from households, it's not a barrier to net-zero grids.
Read 11 tweets

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