@UpOnlyTV my thread notes on the awesome chat with @RaoulGMI , @CryptoCobain and @ledgerstatus (1/n)
Background: Raoul path to Defi:
Global Macro Investor - Investment Research
Was trying to make the world's safest bank after seeing the Global Financial Crisis but shifted gears and started investing in BTC 2012/2013
2014/2015 — @RealVision — people needed to understand finances
Global Macro Investor - Investment Research
Was trying to make the world's safest bank after seeing the Global Financial Crisis but shifted gears and started investing in BTC 2012/2013
2014/2015 — @RealVision — people needed to understand finances
Why did he stick around BTC?
Stock to Flow model - if BTC is digital gold it should have the same attributes. Comparing gold to bitcoin back in 2013 BTC was very undervalued; even if S2F not 100% perfect gives conceptualization of how it could work
Stock to Flow model - if BTC is digital gold it should have the same attributes. Comparing gold to bitcoin back in 2013 BTC was very undervalued; even if S2F not 100% perfect gives conceptualization of how it could work
Bitcoin Thesis: Was really discovering Metcalfe’s Law and how it applied to networks and how big Bitcoin could be.
Network Adoption Model, these assets don't mean revert like a commodity, can’t happen in Bitcoin.
Network Adoption Model, these assets don't mean revert like a commodity, can’t happen in Bitcoin.
Metcalfe's law states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n^2)
How do network effects apply to Bitcoin — exponential curve that keeps going and flattens out once the network effects get more saturated.
How do network effects apply to Bitcoin — exponential curve that keeps going and flattens out once the network effects get more saturated.
Bitcoin to Ethereum:
Was always big on the tokenization of the world.
BTC was a pure play for the current economic situation — lowest on the risk curve
As rally started broadening out - people move further down risk curve ie. ETH —> more risky assets (normal behavior)
Was always big on the tokenization of the world.
BTC was a pure play for the current economic situation — lowest on the risk curve
As rally started broadening out - people move further down risk curve ie. ETH —> more risky assets (normal behavior)
Chart of ETH was really looking good
BTC isn’t the only asset with Network Effects
Understanding Network effects for Crypto Assets is a huge advantage
BTC isn’t the only asset with Network Effects
Understanding Network effects for Crypto Assets is a huge advantage
ETH gaining faster adoption than BTC (# developers, wallets, applications)
BTC growing at: 50% YoY
ETH growing at: 100% YoY
Crypto growing at: 113% YoY — 2x the speed that internet grew at; fastest adoption of any technology and ETH is currently the front runner
BTC growing at: 50% YoY
ETH growing at: 100% YoY
Crypto growing at: 113% YoY — 2x the speed that internet grew at; fastest adoption of any technology and ETH is currently the front runner
How do you analyze the network type of activity?
BTC is valuable for the attributes of BTC
ETH is valuable for the attributesof ETH — this can change
***Its not either or, all these things will blur — everything can blend together into some kind of interoperability***
BTC is valuable for the attributes of BTC
ETH is valuable for the attributesof ETH — this can change
***Its not either or, all these things will blur — everything can blend together into some kind of interoperability***
BTC moving towards ETH (Taproot & Lightning)
ETH moving towards BTC (ETH 2.0)
Other Cryptos solving different issues
Not a competition more of a symbiotic relationship, this will all build a strong robust economy of Crypto assets
ETH moving towards BTC (ETH 2.0)
Other Cryptos solving different issues
Not a competition more of a symbiotic relationship, this will all build a strong robust economy of Crypto assets
How much down the risk curve did Raoul go during the bull run?
BTC & ETH obvious choice, other coins?
Not many other tokens had network effects, chose a basket of 10 and a mixture of protocols, defi, etc. and just watched it.
Added to ETH and switched BTC to ETH as well.
BTC & ETH obvious choice, other coins?
Not many other tokens had network effects, chose a basket of 10 and a mixture of protocols, defi, etc. and just watched it.
Added to ETH and switched BTC to ETH as well.
DOGE (thesis) — high probability of network effects — bit of a joke, and accessible, Mavs merchandise etc. probability of this token building an application is extremely high which will lead to even more network effects. #doge
What is Raoul interested in now?
***Social Tokens in the Metaverse*** — less available tokens, very low key focus is here now.
#Defi — he understands it, he doesn’t care about yield as much, it will scale but he’s not as interested
***Social Tokens in the Metaverse*** — less available tokens, very low key focus is here now.
#Defi — he understands it, he doesn’t care about yield as much, it will scale but he’s not as interested
Contrarian View:
When people are screaming something but it is not reflected in the price, this is an opportunity.
When people are screaming something but it is not reflected in the price, this is an opportunity.
Cobie: "Scare resource in Crypto is not capital but attention — anything that can divert attention is more valuable than money"
Regarding Dfinity / ICP:
Raoul thinks it could go either way, super valuable or bust, does it survive the S-curve?
Ledger: Catherdral in the Bazaar - spend forever building out the Cathedral but don’t have network - nobody wants to visit
Raoul thinks it could go either way, super valuable or bust, does it survive the S-curve?
Ledger: Catherdral in the Bazaar - spend forever building out the Cathedral but don’t have network - nobody wants to visit
FB, Google -> Attention Economy -> Web3.0 you are in control of monetizing your attention and community is the most valuable thing of all (concentrated attention -> social tokens); community is sharing in economic benefits and they care about the growth of the targeted network
Raoul on Debt Supercycle:
Thinks we may not actually be in a bubble, we may just need to change the denominator that we are looking at
>Tech Stocks - Metcalfes
>Crypto - Network effects
Have outperformed
We are in an exponential age (AI, Robotics, Green Energy, Crypto etc)
Thinks we may not actually be in a bubble, we may just need to change the denominator that we are looking at
>Tech Stocks - Metcalfes
>Crypto - Network effects
Have outperformed
We are in an exponential age (AI, Robotics, Green Energy, Crypto etc)
When can Raoul's thesis be wrong?
Central Bank balance sheet driver of asset prices, quite clear now
If CB continues to print and asset prices fall then this thesis is wrong, something has changed (for extended period)
Central Bank balance sheet driver of asset prices, quite clear now
If CB continues to print and asset prices fall then this thesis is wrong, something has changed (for extended period)
Politicians / CB: if they all join a worldcoin (CB digital currency —> basket of these currencies, stable currency - but to be a member you can only increase money supply x% per year) => changes the equation but this could cause an issue for BTC narrative
BTC - Adoption by Countries (El Salvador)
Raoul expected the first country to do something in Crypto would be a LatAm country
Good for remittances
Lightning network will be interesting
Step in the right direction
Bigger game is central bank digital currencies
Raoul expected the first country to do something in Crypto would be a LatAm country
Good for remittances
Lightning network will be interesting
Step in the right direction
Bigger game is central bank digital currencies
Central Bank Digital Currencies
China will the be first
Sweden, Singapore, Bahamas, Barbados all have programs going on.
Very clear this is where these countries and CB are going
Thinks CBs will all move towards private sector rails rather than be govt built
China will the be first
Sweden, Singapore, Bahamas, Barbados all have programs going on.
Very clear this is where these countries and CB are going
Thinks CBs will all move towards private sector rails rather than be govt built
On ETH 2.0:
*May* end up being buy the rumor sell the fact
Everyone that supports and stakes it is going to realize some gains as soon as it goes live —> could be a local macro top for ETH
No chain can be everything, and this is great for the space overall -> interoperability
*May* end up being buy the rumor sell the fact
Everyone that supports and stakes it is going to realize some gains as soon as it goes live —> could be a local macro top for ETH
No chain can be everything, and this is great for the space overall -> interoperability
Other:
Excited about Augmented Reality space
Excited about CB Digitization
Digital World needs to eat the govt. world
Piece of Wisdom:
Best investment you can make to yourself is travel - places that can make you uncomfortable. Travel is the greatest education you can do.
Excited about Augmented Reality space
Excited about CB Digitization
Digital World needs to eat the govt. world
Piece of Wisdom:
Best investment you can make to yourself is travel - places that can make you uncomfortable. Travel is the greatest education you can do.
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