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W. Gyude Moore

16 Jun, 11 tweets, 5 min read

@aselassie

Thread: This IMF blog from my brother, @aselassie and co-authors raise serious questions about how to finance African infrastructure and how to increase private participation. This is really, really good.
blogs.imf.org/2021/06/14/how…

In both practice and research, I've found the barriers and challenges they outline here to hold true. One hopes that their blogpost is both intended to spur debate around these issues and are a departure point for a substantive response to the issues they raised.

So let's discuss at least one of the risks they discuss: "Project Risks" - the lack of bankable projects & investor hesitation to absorb development risks in unfamiliar markets. This is an unchanging refrain when the topic of private investment in Africa comes up. And it's odd.

@IFC_org

Why exactly does the @IFC_org and other DFIs exist? Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't "additionality" the core raison d'etre of development finance? As in addressing market failure and bringing projects online that wouldn't otherwise exist?

The evidence overwhelming points to sparse or non-existent risk capital to deploy in the project development stage. DFIs who should address this risk have overwhelmingly built risk profiles to mirror the private sector. Which begs the question of why they exist.

G7 DFIs have pledged to deploy $80 billion in the private sector in Africa over the next 5 years. Color me skeptical about the credibility of the G7 on this question and the viability of the the proposition. gov.uk/government/new…

Africa is in a no-win situation here since in 5 years, they can all return and say "Well, money was not the problem. We had $80 billion ready to go but there were no bankable projects." There is no pipeline of investment ready projects. We know that today.

@CDCgroup

The G7 DFIs like @CDCgroup (UK), @Proparco (France), @jica_usa and #JBIC (Japan), @DFCgov (US), @FinDev_Canada (Canada), @KfW_FZ_int (Germany) and @GruppoCDP (Italy) have experience in African markets. These are the actors meant to deploy the promised $80 billion.

Did they somehow overlook $80 billion worth of bankable projects in Africa since they all have substantive presence in the market or will they discover $80 billion worth of private sector ready projects overnight? We need to examine the risk profile of DFIs.

To be fair. Shareholders' contradictory demands on the DFIs put them in an impossible situation and undercut the very purpose of their existence. They are simultaneously expected to take on more risk, but somehow expected to deliver largely positive returns. It's insane.

@IMFNews

Again, I'm really pleased that the Africa Department of @IMFNews has written this blog. I would expect the Fund to work with DFIs to develop the appropriate tools to make this issue beginning with an assessment and readjustment of DFI risk profile. END

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W. Gyude Moore

@gyude_moore

15 Jun

@RencapMan

Africa’s share of global trade fell by more than half, from 4.8% in 1980 to only 2.2% in 1988. Today it's 2.8%. The explanation, as @RencapMan shows: value accrues to finished goods when Africa's exports are concentrated in unprocessed mineral, agricultural and forest products.

https://twitter.com/RencapMan/status/1404761297477115905

To add value (industrialization) requires infrastructure. We need power. If energy access rate hovers around 40% and over 600 million people lack access to electricity, the graph Charlie posted is the inevitable outcome. Electricity is the lifeblood of industrialization.

This is not a conversation about solar home systems to "charge cell phones". This is about industrial scale energy access to run smelters, agro-processing factories, for temperature and moisture control in ag storage facilities, for hospitals and schools.

Read 4 tweets

W. Gyude Moore

@gyude_moore

14 Jun

For African policymakers and publics, the Trump's administrations schizophrenic engagement was whiplash-inducing as it veered left and right in every which direction. The President both allegedly spoke disparagingly about the continent and his policies seemed actively hostile.

President Trump's deportation of Africans was aggressive even during the pandemic, when flights were grounded and national borders remained closed.
qz.com/africa/1885398…

But the administration also famously focused on expanding commercial engagement in Africa. It was the right idea even when its launch, typical of the Trump administration, left a lot to be desired. US policy toward Africa needed a substantive expansion in two-way trade.

Read 5 tweets

W. Gyude Moore

@gyude_moore

9 Jun

Four months ago, the AU infrastructure envoy announced an Infrastructure Fund, financed with about 5% of the holdings of African sovereign wealth and pension funds. There has been no news of uptake or an anchor investor(s) for the fund.
reuters.com/article/us-afr…

Since the pandemic has undermined the fiscal position of most countries, financing infrastructure with national budgets will be severely limited after the pandemic. Even worse is the trend of declining funding from bilateral, multilateral & private lenders
bakermckenzie.com/en/insight/pub…

@Africa50Infra

Before the pandemic, the region was already bottom of the pile in deployment of private capital for infrastructure - average of about $6 billion annually (2013 to 2018) compared to $34 billion in Latin America per @Africa50Infra's Alain Ebobisse
africa50.com/news-insights/…

Read 5 tweets

W. Gyude Moore

@gyude_moore

9 Jun

Thread:
I am sure the "more than 100 economists" who signed this earnestly believe they're doing the right thing. Sorta like the road to hell and good intentions, the blanket ban proposed here is misguided and will cause more harm than good.
news.trust.org/item/202106081…

Any ban must accommodate a carve-out for the poorest countries in the world, since they bear the least responsibility for the crisis and the greatest need. I'm talking about the 48 African countries south of the Sahara. Nobody should look to Africa for emissions reduction.

@CDCgroup

Here is a nuanced take from @CDCgroup on what a transition to net-zero looks like in Africa. It accounts for the peculiarity of the African market and sees a role for a transitional role for some fossil fuels - like natural gas.
assets.cdcgroup.com/wp-content/upl…

Read 9 tweets

W. Gyude Moore

@gyude_moore

31 Mar

This research is an excellent addition to the body of knowledge around Chinese lending practices, especially as we think through the implications of the pandemic on the fiscal position of indebted low income countries - mainly in Africa. cgdev.org/blog/secretive…

In a lot of ways, it brings systematic evidence to what we knew anecdotally. Questions about the opacity of Chinese lending have been a constant refrain in critiques of China's lending practice. We know now that it is a feature, not a bug.

Borrowing from Chinese policy banks have always meant that the funding was deployed to achieve policy ends - we now know that these objectives are secured through "broadly written cancellation and default clauses".

Read 6 tweets

W. Gyude Moore

@gyude_moore

20 Jan

@POTUS

Congratulations to @POTUS. Joining my voice to other Africans at home and in the Diaspora who hope for a better, more substantive engagement. We're rooting for you and hope you can achieve your agenda - both for the American people and for the world. THREAD

@ABlinken

In his prepared remarks for his committee hearing @ABlinken promised "engage the world not as it was, but as it is.” WE will hold you to that. US Africa policy should, in intent and practice, seek mutual prosperity between Africa and America. 1/

The world as it is recognizes that Africans have interests that are unique and separate from any Great Power competition. We want partners in fulfilling aspirations for ourselves & our children. Finding fulfillment in our homeland. That our culture, economy, societies can thrive.

Read 18 tweets

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