What is the least-cost pathway to decarbonise heating?
New @UCL_Energy@CREDS_UK research shows hydrogen-dominated heating would cost consumers 73% more compared to pathways relying on district heating and heat pumps.
THREAD 1/10 researchsquare.com/article/rs-629…
@UCL_Energy@CREDS_UK The whole UK energy system would cost 33% less if we follow heat pump and district heating pathways compared to a hydrogen-dominated pathway. 2/10
This is driven by significantly higher electricity requirements for hydrogen production. 3/10
Importantly the research concludes that “as heat pumps require less electricity than hydrogen, the requisite primary supply could be developed faster and, therefore potentially facilitate a more rapid achievement of the net-zero target and of reduced cumulative emissions.” 4/10
The research shows that future systems will need to store energy in the order of tens of TWh to cope with demand driven by extreme weather events. The costs of this are built into the modelling of pathways. 5/10
A shout out for district heating: it offers the highest system value of all three pathways as it can integrate a wide range of heat sources and provides ample scope for balancing and storage. @ChiefExecCCC made a case for district heating recently.
The method applied in the study is an integrated system approach. It allows to evaluate the implications of components on the whole system and to estimate the technology requirements accurately. 7/10
The use of fossil fuels to make hydrogen even with CCS is excluded because their GHG emissions would have to be balanced by atmospheric CO2 removal, such as with Direct Air Capture and Storage (DACS) technologies, with uncertain costs and environmental impacts. 8/10
Cooling buildings will be very important with rising temperatures as @theCCCuk report yesterday showed. The research highlights that heat pumps can be used for cooling whereas hydrogen cannot. 9/10 architectsjournal.co.uk/news/climate-a…
The UCL research takes more of the costs into account using a more sophisticated model yet arrives at similar figures, although smaller differentials between h2, HPs and DH.
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The Renewable Energy Directive is up for review. Heating & cooling provisions require an urgent reform to meet the 2030 climate goal & avoid excessive use of unsustainable bioenergy. Our new @RegAssistProj report explains the problem the solution. 1/6 raponline.org/knowledge-cent…
Current ambitions by Member States to increase the share of renewables in the heating and cooling sector fall short on delivering the EU’s climate and energy goals with an expected share of renewables of heating and cooling of just 33% compared to the required 39-41%. 2/6
There is currently no cap on any heating and cooling sources other than waste heat. As a result, biomass contributed 81% of the total amount of renewable heating and cooling target in 2018 and will continue to play a major role in 2030. 3/6
Fossil fuel industry representatives have suggested that, when it comes to decarbonising buildings, hydrogen is their get out of jail free card. No need to insulate buildings. Just replace the fuel.
Here's why their argument is deeply flawed and false.
THREAD: Where to use hydrogen and where not - new research by @PIK_Climate led by @FalkoUeckerdt just published in @NatureClimate provides merit order for hydrogen use.
Headline finding: Hydrogen is not recommended for use in cars and space heating. 1/n
It all comes down to efficiency. Overall electricity-to-useful-energy efficiencies of hydrogen range from roughly 10% (light trucks) to 35% (boilers), which translates into electricity requirements that are 2–14 times higher than for direct electrification alternatives. 2/n
E-fuel mitigation costs are estimated to be €800–1,200 per tCO2. Large-scale deployment could reduce costs to €20–270 per tCO2 until 2050, yet it is unlikely that e-fuels will become cheap and abundant early enough. 3/n
The article shows that oil giants such as Shell, BP and Norway’s Equinor have staked their futures on fossil gas as a less-polluting alternative to oil. Now they hope that by stripping the carbon from their methane to create hydrogen, they can ensure a market for it remains. 3/7
Existing policy is insufficient to deliver on the target and falls short by close to 50%. The gap is even larger to the @theCCCuk trajectory required for net zero. 2/7
We will need a policy package consisting of 4 elements:
1) financial support especially for low-income households
2 structural reform of bills and stamp duty 3) regulatory backstop in early 2030s 4) all of this underpinned by robust governance framework