JACKIS Profile picture
Jun 17, 2021 16 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Fibonacci Retracement 📚

One of the most effective tools for profitable trading everyone must know.

▪️ What is it?
▪️ Why are they such a powerful tool?
▪️ How to properly use them?
▪️ Hot to define strong trends?
▪️ Advanced techniques?

1/16
▪️ What is it?

Fibonacci retracement levels are horizontal lines that indicate where Support & Resistance are likely to occur

They are based on Fibonacci numbers. Each level is associated with a percentage. The percentage is how much of a prior move the price has retraced

2/16
The most commonly used ratios include 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. Although you can modify them and put any number you find the most valuable for you.

In simple words, they are nothing more than a % retracement from two price points.

3/16
▪️ Why are they such a powerful tool?

Because they define very clear horizontal levels where the price is the most likely to:

1) React
2) Could pullback to
3) Is most likely to bottom

It's also the best tool to DCA in on dips in a trend

4/16
▪️ How to properly use them?

In order to properly draw Fibs, you must understand what swings are, if you don't, read below 👇

Once you do, you drag them from the low to the high or vice versa and look for reactions on the retracement levels

5/16

What u must understand is that each swing at each timeframe has its own little retracements and you must always remember that the bigger the timeframe the bigger the relevance.

This is a nice example of many smaller swings inside of one big

6/16
In the example above us, you can see many bearish swings with nice little retracements in between but it is truly important to keep in mind that we are still inside of this one HTF swing in a dominant bullish trend.

That's where most traders do the most mistakes...

7/16
...because they think the price is going down as they are stuck on the H1 timeframe but in reality, it's just a healthy HTF retracement right into the "Golden Zone"

The GZ is anything between the magical 61.8% & 78.6% retracement

That's where you place your bids

8/16
After the new swing appears we have to adjust our fib & always be mindful between the HTF & LTF swings & the dominant HTF trend.

If you add the advanced principles of MS, see below 👇, then you have the perfect formula



9/16
▪️ Hot to define strong trends?

You mark the significant low on the chart and keep updating your point high level as the price moves higher but keeping the same low you drag your fib from

In a strong trend, price shouldn't be retracing to the 50% level

10/16
Price moves higher you update the fib high.

Any retracement to the 23,6% & 38,2% is a level to watch for continuation. DCA at these levels is the smartest move.

If the price retraces & closes below the 50% level. The trend could be temporarily paused for a HTF pullback.

11/16
A nice example of this was also the #Bitcoin 2017 run where price kept bouncing out of the 23,6% & 38,2% levels until it didn't & closed below 50%

Price did its HTF retest of the golden zone and continued trading upwards.

12/16
▪️ Advanced techniques?

Use both methods we just learned and combine them.

Apply the HTF 23,6% & 38,2% levels with LTF swing retracement levels of Golden Zone (GZ)

13/16
Where you find confluence with the LTF Golden Zone (GZ) & HTF trend continuation levels you place your bids.

You see how very easy it can get. And if you miss the first opportunity, you can always re-enter later on another retracement.

14/16
The thing to remember is to always try to connect the significant swings that really stick to your eye if you are unsure.

You can also switch between lower & higher timeframes to get a better idea of the swing.

Unclear which low to use? Switch from D1 to W1

15/16
Hopefully, you found this thread valuable once again & it's gonna increase your probability and profitability in the markets

If you did, please consider liking & sharing it with your friends. It's gonna help me create more of these threads & your friends to get better 🙌

16/16

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More from @i_am_jackis

Oct 18
#Bitcoin to hit 689 000$ ‼️
--
Lots of people ask me what my TP is for this cycle as it seems everyone is so obsessed with TPing as fast as possible because

"One more pump & then a bear market (Or one final sweep then a bull market 🤣"

My stance is & always has been this:

👇🧵 Image
We remain bullish as long as the market is.

Obviously, this is not popular on social media because everyone wants to hear certain numbers whether that's 90K or 900K so they know what to expect & it also brings so much engagement
Saying we stay bullish as long as the market is pretty much a vague term but it is the one that produces the most money

Because we never know how long the bull market will last and even the best investors in history got burned hard trying to short the dot-com bubble too early
Read 13 tweets
Sep 7
"ONE FINAL SWEEP & ONE FINAL SHAKEOUT!"

This is what I keep reading here but I have to strongly disagree

In this thread 🧵 I'll go over why any move for #Bitcoin from here will be detrimental & why it's either gonna become a HTF distribution or re-accumulation

1/15👇 Image
#BTC since 2022 has been mainly defined by these three major ranges with a mini one in between at 40K

The current one takes 192 days, compared to the 220 days between 25-31K & 276 days of the bottoming one Image
To contextualize things and put them into perspective

The topping range in Q1-Q2 2021 took about 97 days & the top range in 2019 took about 96 days

This makes the current being twice as long as those topping ones
Image
Image
Read 18 tweets
Jul 7
It made sense to stay 🐂 on #Bitcoin as long as the trend & range were holding & equities were going up but now it has lost its MS after 130 days of 🦀 PA & we need to adapt

I'll break down all the facts you need for all scenarios in understandable language below 👇

1/18 🧵 Image
When it comes to bullish/bearish posts it always comes down to TimeFrames. You can have a trader that is bullish on H1 screaming at a bearish trader on D1 while the Weekly trader is bullish again

It makes no sense & we need to analyze each one differently to understand the TF 👇
The macro view, which is like a Monthly to somewhat Weekly, remains bullish, while Weekly down to Daily is now bearish

The M1/W1 TF remains bullish as long as the 39K low is holding but locally we can be bear-bleeding for some time as the 130 days long #BTC range was lost Image
Read 19 tweets
Mar 25
Here is the psychological truth about the #Bitcoin / #Crypto market 👇

The vast majority of market participants bought the top in 2021, whether the 1st or the 2nd. The exact price is unimportant for this post

🧵 Silent Read Time: 1 Min, 52 Sec Image
1) A decent portion of them sold the bottom, especially after the #FTX crash

Either from panic selling, multiplied by the fear spread on social media with posts such as:

EXIT ALL MARKETS or THE GREATEST RECESSION since THE GREAT DEPRESSION coming

The others from the greed of.. Image
..selling & buying back cheaper at lower prices

This was a prime example of the market going up thousands of % & yet people losing money on it

Those people are still waiting for a bigger pullback to buy cheap & will continue to do so & miss everything. Again.
Read 10 tweets
Feb 20
You don't wanna miss this #Bitcoin alpha thread 🧵👀

#BTC around 50K is still within a strong value area

Lots of people sidelined, waiting for a bigger correction will miss out

Data from Financial Advisors across the US are suggesting big future upside

1/20

Read below👇 Image
First of all, I did expect we would get the upside we got from the 40-45K range, but after, I thought we would get a deeper pullback at some point to like 32K or so

I do not think that anymore

Below is the original thread worth your time to read through

One of the reasons I don't think so anymore is the Weekly Market Structure

In any chart, remember, that for the HTF directional bias, the most important tool is the W1 MS

With the latest move, we got ourselves a new HL & HH confirming that Image
Read 22 tweets
Jan 13
BIG #BITCOIN ALPHA UPDATE 13/1/2024 🧵

No emotional bias, just truth bombs full of data & mainly my own context ✅

Both bullish & bearish arguments - HTF to LTF

Hit like & Bookmark to keep this plan in the back of your mind

Let's get to it 👇

1/25Image
We start HTF, scale in & create the valuable context 👇

So my thesis has been & is still the same throughout the whole of 2023, that we move above the so important psychological level of March 22 high, sitting at 48K, distribute above & pullback


Image
So the 48K level caused a reaction as expected but imo we move higher still to distribute & there are multiple reasons for it

1) We spent 500+ days accumulating sub 30K, such energy simply doesn't get distributed in 30 days. At minimum 120+ days

Read 25 tweets

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