Thread by @BridgetFox

Why did the voters of True Blue Tory #CheshamAndAmersham go #LibDems this time? Here’s my take (tldr - much more than nimbyism)

First, obvs, it’s a by-election, the message that “this won’t change the Gov’t but can change how they see us” resonated, and the Libdems had a brilliant candidate, good recent local elections and a ton of helpers piling in. Tories seemed complacent, voters like to be wooed.

NIMBY issues were part of the campaign - impossible to ignore HS2 locally and it affects the Tory villages more than the towns. Planning concerns showed here - as across SE in May’s elections - but far from the whole story.

So what else was going on? Issues I got on the doorstep and from my family in Amersham were varied but pointed to the Tories being complacent locally and ‘nasty’ or incompetent nationally.

People here care passionately about education. Many families move here for the (grammar) schools and pay a premium to do so. The impact of the Government’s handling of Covid on schools and exams, and university experiences, has left them livid.

It’s also an older than average demographic - lots of care homes, lots of elderly households. The shockingly incompetent and callous treatment of care home residents, freshly highlighted in election week, undermined the core Conservative vote.

Chesham and Amersham voted Remain. #Brexit may no longer be the main issue but a lot of people work in City, locally-based global tech & pharma companies, lots of educated professionals. Nationalist rhetoric not very popular here.

People did not like the nasty party aspects of today’s Tories. This is an area where there’s a big annual Christian Aid fundraiser, people unhappy about cuts to international aid. Also some disgusted by treatment of well-respected next door MP Dominic Grieve.

Boris was not a hit here either, he’s perambulated around adjacent areas (Henley, London, Uxbridge), seen as unreliable, selfish, a disappointment - and out of touch eg by small business owners, which is a big dent in his brand.

Plus @calibdems have had hardworking councillors in the two towns for years, building up base and tactical votes. People readily understood that only the #LibDems could beat the Tories, and this time they wanted that to happen.

So my take is that if the Conservative Gov’t continues to pursue nasty party policies while taking educated Home Counties for granted, we can expect more election upsets to come.