I'm honestly disappointed. This tweet is unprofessional in its framing, sensationalist, and not the quality I expect from the M&G. The article is no better, as it adopts a breathless tabloid-style tone and doesn't back up key claims like the purported R200 million cost. 1/
First, newspapers should ditch the 'Mabena' meme. It's misleading, patronising, and fundamentally unsuited for serious commentary on the armed forces. It would be like framing all reporting on govt departments or politics as 'mamparas', which would obviously be inappropriate. 2/
As for the article, the key claim that the new uniforms will cost 'between R120 million and R200 million' is not supported by any sourcing or justification at all. That's surprising, and frankly unacceptable, given how much that figure has been promoted for this story. 3/
This matters, because how much this costs depends on how it's rolled out. If it's done like previous SANDF uniform improvements there should be little to no extra cost because regular annual uniform purchases will just be switched to the new pattern for for a gradual rollout. 4/
But there's no detail on which rollout process has been picked, or even which of those being evaluated has been picked. In fact as far as can be seen there's no new information on the topic to justify a front-page article, just extra speculation on the months-old story. 5/
Even if there is an extra cost to the new uniforms, the article doesn't justify its opinionated claim that uniform improvements aren't necessary or valuable. It's wrong, because there is a real need for the improvements the new uniforms bring especially in operational areas. 6/
Every officer I've spoken to with operational experience, even those most cynical about the motives of senior leadership, has been fully behind the need for an improved uniform. They've been trying to get the inherent shortcomings of the existing one resolved for years. 7/
In fact the new pattern & cut are the result of CSIR research & evaluations that started decades ago following operational experience in Burundi, the DRC, and Sudan. These new uniforms & boots should last longer in those conditions & improve combat effectiveness. 8/
I really want to emphasise that last part: Uniforms are a crucial element of combat effectiveness. Everything from the material used, to the pattern, to how well it retains colour over time, to where pockets are placed makes a difference in combat. 9/
So it really makes no sense to argue that improvements to the combat camouflage uniform are unnecessary compared to other mission equipment. It all has the same goal. To frame it, as the article does, as merely being done to improve appearances is wrong. 10/
What's worse is that there really is a need for proper investigative journalism on this acquisition, but this isn't it. The key questions such as how it will be rolled out, which companies will be eligible for procurement, how evaluations are done, and so on remain unanswered.11/
In sum this is a disappointing & low-quality article from the M&G, from whom we should expect better. It adds no new sourced information on cost, uses tabloid-style framing, and fundamentally misunderstands the value of combat uniform improvements to combat performance. 12/12

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More from @darren_olivier

7 Apr
One of the most frustrating things about the defence debate in SA is the lack of knowledge about what capabilities & missions cost. e.g. To fund the existing Navy just for full utilisation would require doubling its budget to around R8-9 billion p.a. But it wouldn’t be enough. 1/
Realistically, SA would need dozens more ships & aircraft to be able to properly patrol its huge EEZ, mammoth search & rescue area, and conduct foreign operations like those off Mozambique. It’s too large an area for four frigates & a few OPVs, esp. with maintenance cycles. 2/
How many are actually needed for that level of control? Every war gamed scenario points to around a dozen frigates, 15-20 OPVs, another 15-20 IPVs, at least two support ships, and many others. Plus shipborne helicopters, maritime patrol aircraft. 3/
Read 10 tweets
23 Aug 20
This is something a few of us have known about but been unable to write about till now. Staff at Denel Dynamics were told that a crucial contract to sell Umkhonto surface-to-air missiles to Egypt was cancelled because no South African bank would guarantee the advance payment. 1/
Multi-billion Rand arms sales are quite complex, they’re never just a straight trade of cash for goods. In most cases the client, in this case TKMS on behalf of the Egyptian Navy, first provides a portion of the contract value as an advance payment to pay for ramp up costs. 2/
In these cases the advance payment is essentially like a deposit, and manufactures like Denel are obliged to pay back most or all of it if they fail to deliver the contracted value. To ensure this happens, nearly every buying country insists on a bank guaranteeing the payment. 3/
Read 10 tweets
31 Jan 20
This morning the South African Air Force held its annual Prestige Day, on the closest Friday to the anniversary of its founding on 1 February 1920. It should have been a celebration of the Air Force turning 100 years old, instead it has been mired in farcical politics. 1/
I understand the difficulty with commemorating any pre-'94 military history, which I wrote about that in some detail earlier (). The racially exclusive pre-1994 history of the SAAF can not and must not be celebrated uncritically. Not all of it was proud. 2/
Yet there are clear ways to maturely address an inherited history, and to acknowledge its continuity, without celebrating its worst parts. Indeed, this is what government and the SANDF have done until now, commemorating all SAAF anniversaries up until the 95th. What changed? 3/
Read 10 tweets
2 Sep 19
Opposing the cash injection is a terrible idea. Let me explain why it's necessary, and why should be supported even if you want Denel to be broken up & privatised. In short, the alternative is Denel going bankrupt in an uncontrolled way, costing taxpayers more, not less 1/
First, and most important, none of the executive team and board who drove Denel into the ground remain. All were sacked & some now face legal proceedings. The new c-suite & board had to present a restructuring plan to National Treasury & the DPE before receiving support. 2/
Second, Denel's cash flow crunch is a peculiar one. It has billions in unrealised revenue from signed orders, but can't complete them because it doesn't have the cash for the required material & parts. Being able to complete deliveries on these would improve its cash flow. 3/
Read 12 tweets
22 Mar 19
Some info and context on the SANDF's humanitarian aid efforts in Mozambique following the devastating flooding from Cyclone Idai, and an explanation of why the South African Air Force has only been able to send one Oryx, one A109, and a light transport aircraft to assist. 1/
The SAAF has, on paper, about 37 Oryx, 26 AW109, 3 BK117 & 4 SuperLynx 300 helicopters. Only a small proportion of those are available for contingencies, 5 Oryxes are in the DRC, others are in servicing, assigned to standby for SA fire fighting/SAR/etc, or waiting for parts. 2/
Right now that spare capacity for deployment outside of SA is just one Oryx and one AW109. For those following SANDF budgeting this is expected: With present funding the SAAF has long been able only to keep sufficient aircraft airworthy to meet its day-to-day requirements. 3/
Read 12 tweets

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