To journalists reporting about the AZ case in which, apparently, interim measures were delivered (thread)
I have now seen reports that AZ won (based on an AZ press release) and that the Commission won (based on their press release). How do you know?
First: establish where we are in the proceedings. Is it done? Or an interim measure? Then: look what the two parties asked for. And what was granted.
You have to deliver x doses can be a victory (if C asked for x doses and A wanted 0) or a loss (if C asked for 100 times x and A conceded x from the start). But it is more complicated, sadly
Because reality and strategy cree in. You might ask for more than you feel you realistically should get. You might try to have a suit thrown out even though you don‘t believe 100% in that argument. You might concede for pr reasons etc etc
Right now the judgment does not seem publicly available. Without that - we cannot tell, as both sides seem to claim victory, sort of.
My guess is that this is not one-sided, but nuanced...
So: wait for the judgment.
One of the things to watch out for: was there a breach of contract or not.
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When FTAs go mainstream, the problem is that every publication needs to write about them. But most don’t have people on staff who understand them. /1
I would guess that a majority of those who have heard about the UK-Oz FTA think that the agreement is in force now. It isn’t. /2
But trade experts really don’t help (nostra culpa, nostra culpa, nostra maxima culpa) by inventing concepts such as ‘agreement in principle’. Where the parties are sure that they’ll reach an FTA shortly, but haven’t yet. /3
I was, quite justifiably, asked "what does get over Brexit mean" given the trade effect of Brexit. That deserves an answer (thread)
I have not been shy pointing out that from a trade perspective Brexit is not a winning proposition - but that the EU is about more and if you do not want to be part of it that is a legitimate choice.
I have repeatedly pointed out falsehoods. But I try to inform debate about actual choices from where we are.
This country has got to get over Brexit. The debate is increasingly skewed - and allow me to argue this tweet is actually counterproductive in that regard (and I say that as someone on balance in favor of a UK-Oz FTA) (thread)
FTAs have always had people who favour them and people against them. That's true of the WTO, too. Think of the "battle of Seattle" (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Seat…)
Some of that is opposition to globalization, some of that opposition to free trade. Some of it has good reasons, some of it reasons I reject. But it is a debate that is very much present everywhere. And it's not about Brexit. But there's more.
A reminder, of course, that this is an agreement in principle. Meaning there is no FTA yet. Those not doing trade will find that astonishing ("what is the fuss about if there is no trade agreement?"). But it has become customary. /1
Before we have an agreement, an "agreement in principle" is announced. That means that some stuff is not agreed yet, though most is. "So how much is agreed, how much isn't?" you might ask. The rough answer is: nobody knows. /2
"But the tough issues are all solved, right?" Well, the tough big ones. There might be tough small ones that are missing, it might take a bit, but the parties are certain they'll get there. /3
The vaccination campaigns on the continent are roughly 6-7 weeks or so behind the UK one. And, curiously, the same seems to apply to the mood - "hooray, freedom".
The incidence rates are at a similarly low level as the UK saw a couple of weeks back: Germany is now at 13.2. The UK was at the low point in May. It is now back up to 70.