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18 Jun, 4 tweets, 2 min read
1) So fed talks tough. Bullard makes the rounds. Curve flattens and a bunch of “late to party” hedge funds puke their “inflation trades”—they never believed in the trade anyway...
2) You think oil gives 2 fuks about curve steepeners blowing up some asshole in Greenwich?? Nope!! Look at it. Oil is key to inflation. Not gold, not #Bitcoin, not copper or anything else. Watch oil. It’s the first to call their bluff. Think wages are backing off?
3) They’ll talk a big game, maybe give us 50bps in ‘23. Who cares?? You think they kept rates at zero in Zimbabwe?? This is a fiscal show now anyway. Fed is trapped and this is all a pretend...
4) This inflation liquidation ends in a week (roughly when Q2 ends) and no one has “inflation” left on their sheets to show their LPs. Then we’re gonna just laugh at this.

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More from @hkuppy

Kuppy Profile picture
8 Feb
1) Yesterday, a good friend reminded me of the 2 cardinal rules for short selling during “Project Zimbabwe”...
2) Rule 1- if you feel a desire to short something, punch yourself in the dick...
3) Rule 2- repeat Rule 1 until you snap out of your stupidity...
Read 4 tweets
Kuppy Profile picture
27 Jan
1) This $GME trade has been obvious and I’ve been all over it for weeks. Barring something unexpected, we have an insanity squeeze tomorrow. Fun stuff!! I have no right-tail exposure as I already banked massive gains. That was the appetizer...
2) If I’m right about the insanity squeeze, all the funds who are short $GME and similar stuff, blow up and have to puke their longs. Remember, 120/80 has been a massive inflow machine. Now these levered funds are on the ropes. It’s a “quant quake.”It will be sudden and violent..
3) The higher $GME goes, the more it will pressure the quants. However, when all the equity is chewed through, someone has to defuse these neutron bombs. I suspect there’s a price on $GME where the prime brokers will step in...
Read 9 tweets
Kuppy Profile picture
10 Dec 20
1) Quick Event-Driven idea in $MCAC. Lemme start by saying I own a bunch (fair disclosure). It is “breaking out” today on big volume, which means it’s been “discovered.” (I havent added any today, but would if I weren’t at the airport and still in de-grossing mode).
2) What is $MCAC? It’s a small float (5.7m shares)SPAC that’s buying Playboy. What’s Playboy? It’s no longer the magazine and porno brand of Hef days. Now it’s a licensing business (clothing/casinos/condoms/booze/etc). Licensing is a stunningly good business and it’s growing fast
3) New CEO (Ben Kohn) took over in 2017 and pivoted out of bad biz (magazine/porn) to licensing. I spoke with Kohn. He has a PE background. He gets it. He’s here to make money—not chase girls. They will expand licensing and grow their Direct-To-Consumer business.
Read 9 tweets
Kuppy Profile picture
11 Sep 20
1) Let’s do a Friday happy-hour Event-Driven (ED) thread as ED keeps working. Not every trade is a home-run, but the hit rate has been surprisingly good lately. Let’s look at one of my favorite strategies; potential short squeezes...
2) $DDS may or may not be undervalued. It probably goes the way of $JCP, but that’s not my fight. I care about the short interest at 6,819,568. It has been high forever and there have been a number of squeezes in the past few years.
3) What matters today is that $DDS keeps buying back stock, setting up for a new squeeze. During July, they bought back 586,851 shares. By my math, between Aug 1 and Aug 29, they bough back another 267k shares. That means there are 18,366,790 Class A shares outstanding on Aug 29.
Read 11 tweets
Kuppy Profile picture
3 Aug 20
1) Quick $LPG thread. They report Q2 tomorrow. Results will be solid. I expect some low forward guidance for Q3 rates, but that doesn’t matter as VLGC is screaming higher again. NAV is in the low $20’s and financial leverage is low. They’ve been agressive on buybacks in Q1.
2) They bought back 6% of shares outstanding in 1 quarter. I expect they hoovered stock in Q2 at 1/3 of NAV. At current VLGC rates, they earn north of a buck a quarter and possibly higher if the sharecount shrank. The fundies are super solid due to Asian demand and US exports.
3) Anyway, $LPG is a damn large position for me and I added more before earnings.
Read 4 tweets
Kuppy Profile picture
30 Jul 20
1) Final $LOOT thread. On May 29, I wrote a thread joking that I was long a basket of companies that did well if the riots and looting acceleated (as I suspected they would). I felt that I had VERY low risk as the basket was cheap on valuation.
2) Over the next few weeks, people lost their collective minds and torched many large cities, while begging for police to be de-funded. There was a massive run on guns and ammo that surprised my own expectations.
3) Over those 2 months, I sold out of the core names as they rallied. Some like $DGLY were multi-baggers, while other substantially larger positions like $SWBI more than doubled and $VSTO was up almost that much. I really thought they’d come for $VTSI and maybe they still will.
Read 9 tweets

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