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Peter Ungphakorn (also @coppetainpu.bsky.social) Profile picture
@CoppetainPU
Jun 18, 2021 • 11 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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Will the 🇬🇧 UK-Australia 🇦🇺 trade agrement do what has been claimed?

“British farmers will be protected by a cap on tariff-free imports for 15 years” the UK International Trade Department said.

A look at the details shows that is not quite true

1/10 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/06/18/uk-…
The detail shows that in only two cases (beef, sheepmeat) is the protection for 15 yrs, and even then the impact of a “cap” is not what it might seem at first sight. For rice, dairy products and sugar, the protection is for zero, five or eight years.

2/10 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/06/18/uk-…
To assess the impact, we need to look at

• the starting point (2021 tariffs and quotas)
• the size and expansion rate of the quotas
• how the in-quota tariff compares with the starting point
• what the out-of-quota or safeguard tariff is

3/10 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/06/18/uk-…
Beef

Year 1 sees a jump in the tariff quota. For years 11-15 the 20% “safeguard” duty effectively reduces the out-of-quota duty to the present in-quota rate: 20%

Since imports are possible at 20%, how much protection will that be?

Details here: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/06/18/uk-…

4/10
Sheepmeat

The present tariff quota is zero for in-quota imports. The same question remains: how much protection will a 20% out-of-quota duty provide in years 11-15?

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/06/18/uk-…

5/10
Sugar

It’s unclear whether the present tariff quota for raw cane sugar will be changed to cover other types of sugar. In any case the quota leaps in year 1, and is replaced completely by duty-free trade after 8 years

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/06/18/uk-…

6/10
Rice

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/06/18/uk-…

Short/medium grain rice is totally duty-free immediately

Long grain has a new permanent tariff quota of 1,000 tonnes

(Note this seems to be about protecting UK rice mills)

7/10
Dairy (cheese)

There is no UK cheese quota for Australia alone, only for all non-EU countries. Year 1 Australia gets quite a large tariff quota, growing for 5 years, then totally duty-free.

Details: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/06/18/uk-…

8/10
Non-cheese dairy

• Butter: No quota now. A new tariff quota growing over 5 years. Totally duty-free imports from year 6.

• Other non-cheese dairy (what does that include?): a new 20,000 tariff quota also for 5 years, duty-free from year 6

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/06/18/uk-…

9/10
Plus a bit of trade-illiteracy

The UK International Trade Department’s press release claims “red tape and bureaucracy will be torn down”.

This is pure fantasy and no credit to a government department dealing with trade.

See ⬇️

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/06/18/uk-…

10/10
UPDATE: I’ve now uploaded the file I used to match product codes in the UK’s tariff quotas with product names. It was a complicated task, and no doubt there are still mistakes.

The blog post now includes the disclaimer buried at the bottom of the text.

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/06/18/uk-…

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More from @CoppetainPU

Peter Ungphakorn (also @coppetainpu.bsky.social) Profile picture
Jun 9, 2022
🧵 On Sunday, the much-postponed 12th WTO Ministerial Conference #MC12 starts.

Here is another curtain-raiser, with @BobWolfeSPS

@wto Director-General @NOIweala believes it will be a success.

But what does “success” mean?

1/11 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/06/09/tou…
“Many gaps remain but we are making progress,” @NOIweala told members on Tuesday Jun 7

“The success of this whole endeavour is in our hands. Let us deliver. The people outside are waiting for us and, believe it or not, I really think we will do it.”

2/11 wto.org/english/news_e…
Fingers crossed, there might even be a deal on fisheries subsidies, she and the talks’ chair @WillsSantiago said.

But despite “cautious optimism” WTO spokesperson Dan Pruzin warned journalists to expect ministers to meet late into the night at #MC12

3/11 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/06/09/tou…
Read 12 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn (also @coppetainpu.bsky.social) Profile picture
May 29, 2022
Was it worth the time looking at the UK’s big deal with Indiana? The one the government hails as a “milestone” and the minister calls a “US trade deal”?

They wants us to take it seriously. So I did. Let’s say I did it so you don’t have to.

1/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/05/29/mil…
TL:DR it's not a trade agreement.

It's a memorandum of understanding, a non-binding statement of intent.

The only trade barrier that might get tackled is govt procurement.

Indiana's state-level entities have no commitments on procurement in the WTO

2/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/05/29/mil…
Indiana “will actively work towards” (not a commitment) treating UK suppliers the same as suppliers from other US states except those neighbouring Indiana.

“That’s the weirdest MFN clause I’ve ever seen,”—@Lorand_Bartels

3/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/05/29/mil…
Read 10 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn (also @coppetainpu.bsky.social) Profile picture
May 27, 2022
“Agreement with Indiana marks milestone in UK’s trade with the US”—the UK government proclaims

Read on

It's a memorandum of understanding on what the UK and Indiana want to develop in their trade and economic relations. That stretches the meaning of “agreement” quite a lot

1/9
Good question⬇️. Short answer: no

So, all we know is what the UK government press release says.

2/9
This is what it says:

“The MoU creates a framework to remove barriers to trade and investment, paving the way for UK and Indianan businesses to invest, export, expand and create jobs.”

Remember: all major trade barriers are handled in Washington

3/9 gov.uk/government/new…
Read 10 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn (also @coppetainpu.bsky.social) Profile picture
May 22, 2022
It’s been clear for some time that WTO members are unlikely to agree on anything substantial on agriculture—despite declaring it a priority—when their ministers meet in Geneva Jun 12–15

Information from trade sources on a meeting last Thu May 19 reinforce that assessment🧵

1/11
The focus has changed in recent months—the Ukraine war has increased concerns about food security.

But the best binding decision that can be expected is to exempt the World Food Programme’s humanitarian purchases from export restrictions—still opposed by India & Tanzania.

2/11
Expect some non-binding/“best-endeavour” statement on food security, eg, the UK-led proposal⬇️, which draws on familiar themes of keeping supplies flowing, increasing transparency, minimising market disruption.

Even transparency is a problem…

3/11 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
Read 11 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn (also @coppetainpu.bsky.social) Profile picture
May 20, 2022
Another day, another WTO topic where members find themselves under pressure to reach agreement within days.

Today: fisheries subsidies, at the end of a “Fish Week” of talks in various formats on curbing harmful subsidies that encourage overfishing.

1/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/wto-fish-talks…
Chair @WillsSantiago briefed the media after a stock-taking meeting of the membership.

Sandwiched between plenaries Mon and Fri, were sessions in various formats. Wills said 30-40 delegations were involved in each of those sessions, total about 50.

2/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/wto-fish-talks…
@WillsSantiago said the talks were constructive with good signals that need to be turned into agreement.

He announced a “Fish Decision” week from May 30, giving members a fortnight to resolve their differences.

3/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/wto-fish-talks…
Read 8 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn (also @coppetainpu.bsky.social) Profile picture
May 19, 2022
WTO members on all sides were urged today to sort out their reservations over the proposed compromise, so that a deal on waiving some intellectual property protection for COVID-19 can be struck by the Jun 12-15 Ministerial Conference, trade sources say.

1/14 #TRIPSwaiver
In an informal meeting of the WTO intellectual property (TRIPS) council, Director-General @NOIweala said WTO members have no option but to produce a result for the #MC12 Ministerial Conference, even if that means negotiating round the clock, the sources said.

2/14
Today's meeting was held to take stock of the first two days of real negotiations on the compromise text⬇️, on Mon&Wed, May 16&18. During those sessions, @NOIweala urged delegates to be prepared to compromise: "the perfect is the enemy of the good"

3/14 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/text-g4-trips-…
Read 15 tweets

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