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Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD

@TracyBethHoeg

20 Jun

@KrugAlli

For boys 12-17, using VAERS data, we (@KrugAlli , @ifihadastick & I) are finding 10.8 cases/100k of cardiac issues consistent w/myo or pericarditis (5.35/100k hospitalized). Important to remember, myo, unlike severe covid, mostly affects healthy kids, may have long term sequelae.

Baseline myo rates in kids estimated to be around 1/100k/year. If we say 2 month follow up for vax, that would mean expected is around 1/600k. myocarditisfoundation.org/myocarditis-in…
More on myocarditis here for non-doctors: mayoclinic.org/diseases-condi…

I realize COVID in kids also has risks, especially for kids w/immune compromise or obesity. For high risk kids, the vaccine makes the most sense. For kids that have already been infected, it is harder to argue for it at least in the short term. For non-immune, pause & ⬇️/1 dose?

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Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD

@TracyBethHoeg

18 Jun

@KrugAlli

Data update:
Risk of hospitalization for cardiac issues post vax in 12-17 year olds = 3.89x COVID hosp risk/week in this age grp
Risk of any cardiac issues (myo/pericarditis/elev troponin) post vax 7.84 x covid hosp risk/week for this age. VAERS data
w/ @KrugAlli & @ifihadastic

@drjohnm

I will keep tweeting as we get more info to share (troponins, male vs female). Again, we need info on the true numerator here (VAERS typically underreports) and insight as to what % of these kids, if any, develop long-term heart issues. ? @drjohnm

@CDCgov

I do not think it would be unreasonable for @CDCgov to pause vaccination of kids without risk factors in this age group as Germany has done. Also, let's not ignore the power of immunity from prior infection. I'll keep saying it: primum non nocere.

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Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD

@TracyBethHoeg

18 Jun

@KrugAlli

Post-vax hospitalization risk for myo/pericaditis vs. current COVID hospitalization risk in 12-17 and 18-24 age groups. According to VAERS data, vax hosp risk in 12-17 yo = 4.26 weeks of COVID risk. Created with @KrugAlli and @ifihadastick. @CDCgov not meeting today but we did 🙂

Here is the relative risk of *any* cardiac issues post vax (elevated trop/myo/pericarditis) vs. hospitalization due to covid by age group according to VAERS. We are going to separate by sex, include graphs on troponins. Would like to publish w/input of 1 or more cardiologists.

There were many self-reports with chest pain lasting days where no medical care was sought, so no diagnosis. What we are finding is a not insignificant risk of myo/pericarditis post vax, even greater in kids than younger people. My understanding is VAERS typically underreports.

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Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD

@TracyBethHoeg

17 Jun

@drjohnm

I want to recommend @drjohnm as a good cardiologist to follow giving (what strikes me as) an honest take of post-vax myocarditis in young people.
His most recent podcast for @Medscape's This Week in Cardiology is an informative listen:
medscape.com/viewarticle/95…
1/5

https://twitter.com/drjohnm/status/1405322375466528773

3/5 I am not anti-vax (at all). I know a 37 year old in the ICU right now w/COVID who declined the vaccine & for this person, that was a risky choice (not to get vaccinated) but for healthy kids, we need to acknowledge their relatively very low risk of severe COVID.

@drjohnm

2/5 "We have a.. number of definite cases of cardiac injury among previously totally normal kids & yet I'm not observing much concern...in the media..Compare the reaction to this vax-linked event with the extreme angst many experts displayed for myocarditis after COVID" @drjohnm

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Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD

@TracyBethHoeg

5 May

@CDCDirector

Our @CDCDirector proposes the US should diverge from the rest of the world & @WHO guidelines & have children wear masks outdoors while playing contact sports like soccer.
Available scientific evidence indicates this will not help control the pandemic, but will be harmful. See 🧵

https://twitter.com/NewDay/status/1389923232246124544

1. Study of >91,000 *youth soccer* players over last summer and only ONE transmission event suspected, lead author says not known if transmission was indoors or outdoors or actually from home. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

2. Univ of Wis study looking at >30,000 high school athletes w/2390 COVID cases; 5 from school, 1 from sports. Sport mask use *not correlated* w/incidence (of course as only 1 case of covid spread during sports!). medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

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Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD

@TracyBethHoeg

12 Mar

This morning, I testified as an expert physician epidemiologist on COVID in schools for a House of Representatives Round Table. It was a fascinating and productive experience. To me, the most important messages were as follows:

1. It is counter-productive to blame school districts/teachers for prolonged school closures when the message we are getting from the CDC is that schools are not safe at X amount of community spread/X amount of distance between students/until strict ventilation standards are met

We scientists know none of the above are based in K-12 school reopening science. We need a unified message from our CDC that is evidence-based which facilitates opening asap with simple, straight-forward, achievable mitigation strategies.

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