Thread by @drdagly

Picking up a lot of collateral flack for not being “happy” that the pandemic is over. I want this done more than anyone. I also realize that I am very sensitive to the worse case scenario for personal reasons. However, I know the science and the history of how we have used it.

I am also pretty well schooled on human nature. Trust me, I’ve seen a lot of bad choices roll through the ICU, not to mention doing some impulsive stuff myself. However the solutions we seek may be guided by the past but need to anticipate the future.

I’d we look at the UK we can see the issues.
🔹80% single shot
🔹60% double vaxed
Vaccine pressure has now made delta their predominant variant. >90% of new cases. With exponential growth. This is expected. It’s taking advantage of millions of partially vaxed people.

The official line was this was spreading in young health people and not driving hospitalization. This is true, but once you get enough disease the rates do follow. And now they are. So much so that the UK is delaying their reopening.

The good news is a single shot reduces the risk of severe disease and hospitalization by as much as >90%, but that still means it’s spreading rapidly in the population, and will drive variant development and hit vulnerable people. Two shots reduces that risk significantly.

This is like hiring a shit plumber to fix a leaky pipe for the third time. Even though the fall wave will be less severe it will have implications on school reopening and ICU and hence hospital capacity. If we do the job right we can avoid this. Yes open! BUT ....

🔹Let’s get max double vaxxed first.
🔹Avoid super spreading events until we do
🔹Continue public masking especially for indoor and poor ventilation venues in the interim.

I know COVID is never completely going away. It’s part of our new reality, but it’s a reasonable ask given what we have sacrificed to get here, especially now that we have the means to accomplish the best health policy by fall.

I wish you sincere and genuine happiness. 🙂🙏