1/ the #Bitcoin network is a complex, dynamic ecosytem, and the latest changes to the distribution of the network are interesting, but not unpredecented
let's look at the data - here is how market share has evolved over the last three months
2/ total hash rate on the network fluctuates in response to a number of factors including the cost and availability of ASICs (capex), the cost and availability of power (opex), and the price of bitcoin
looking at the last six months, we've seen a lot of volatility in global hash
3/ the size and rate of this decrease is consistent with other previous drops. migratory mining has been a trend for the last 3-4 years!
long-term, hash rate will respond to these variables and seek jurisdictions where there is clear, consistent policy and ample renewable energy
4/ the bitcoin network is a highly specialized global compute network. we are entering a new era of geopolitics that will be shaped not by energy commodities, but by compute commodities.
the political, social, and economic implications are profound.
5/ financial compute will be especially important in defining new global power structures
nation states who recognize this will integrate bitcoin and other financial compute networks into their military industrial complex
the next decade will define the winner and losers
6/ as an investor, i'm long this new era of infrastructure investing built around a global, digital, interconnected marketplace built on open-source protocols
this is just the beginning of a much longer narrative arc
i explain this here:
7/ as these dynamics play out and the bitcoin network evolves, don't look at what governments say, look at what they *do*
iceland, khazakstan, el salvador, and other nation states are working to attract hash rate.
the US hasn't made up its mind, yet... but the prize is big
8/ there's a tremendous amount of private capital that's going to be deployed in the US over the coming weeks and months - over $1B in new facilities from my sources
but it's naïve to presume north american mining will be the winner here
the world is a very big place 🌎
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1/ quick notes and data points from the discussion @kellyjgreer and i had at @PubKey_NYC last night
'tis the season of the most hated rally - bitcoin is ripping and macro folks are not happy about it
jamie dimon and elizabeth warren seem especially mad 😠 max cope incoming
2/ bitcoin pricing is driven by FLOWS
it's tempting to get lost in piles of analysis but as we'll discuss later on, the key to understanding is looking at open positions, trade volume, inflows and outflows
sentiment doesn't matter until it's expressed as a trade
3/ bitcoin is highly reflexive
i had a moment of enlightenment a few years back. i used to believe narrative -> sentiment -> flows -> price but it's really much simpler
price drives action
this is what @saylor $MSTR has perfected. buy, price goes up, follow with narrative
1/ a short summary of a recent talk on silicon, satoshis, and superpowers
power in our world is changing. a decade ago, oil and gas companies and banks ruled markets. now it's tech companies and financialization runs rampant (>100x P/E ratios etc)
2/ as our lives become increasingly digitized, value creation is happening on a new frontier, and a handful of industries and companies are well positioned to capitalize on this shift
3/ this is also impacting the geopolitical landscape. we live in a multipolar world, and power has historically been dependent on the ability of a nation to secure access to natural resources, namely oil
1/ thanks to @farokh and the @RugRadio community for having me on the show today! i enjoyed discussing NFT market structure and why i don't care for utility or roadmaps with my JPEGs 🙅♀️
2/ blog post on NFT market microstructure and how it may evolve over time - don't worry, u will be able to explain market microstructure if u just skim it lightly
bonus: you can collect the post as an NFT if you are so inclined, thanks to @viamirror