1) There are times when you learn something that explains everything.
While manufacturing activity is acutely sensitive to business cycles, did you know that services GDP did not shrink from one year to the next between the Korean war and the Great Recession?
2) Monthly business surveys show manufacturing has been contracting since November, and the downturn is confirmed by falls in container freight, diesel consumption, and industrial electricity sales.
1) If you are waiting for a recession or trying to figure out why the US economy has not yet entered a recession...
What if I told you something else is going on? 🧵
2) Historically, manufacturing has been acutely sensitive to business cycles.
Services GDP has not really shrunk from one year to the next from the Korean war until the Great Recession. That was a period encompassing 10 recessions.
3) Monthly business surveys show manufacturing has been contracting since November, and the downturn is confirmed by falls in container freight, diesel consumption, and industrial electricity sales.
1) I didn’t think it was possible, but I returned from my New York trip even more bullish.
I hosted a breakfast with long/short managers, a dinner with a younger group of CIOs and portfolio managers, and met one-on-one with various investors.
🧵
2) The macro folks are worried about rates volatility, the contraction in money supply, and tightening lending standards.
The equity guys are puzzled by the resilient earnings season and stock market going up despite bad breadth.