Marine Le Pen’s far-right party got 19% in today’s regional elections in France — a significant drop from the high 28% it had gotten in the country’s most recent regional elections, in 2015, & also quite a bit less than polls indicated.
Exit polling is suggesting people who’d voted for Le Pen in the presidential election last time (powering her rise) were far less likely to turn out today, than people who’d voted for other presidential candidates. (Parallels some US questions.) lemonde.fr/politique/arti…
The presidential election, next year, will have a different dynamic and Le Pen is still favored to make the Top 2 runoff.
Noteworthy to see that, in France, there’s now a string of recent elections where polling is overstating her party’s strength; breaks usual assumptions.
Noteworthy to see that, in France, there’s now a string of recent elections where polling is overstating her party’s strength; breaks usual assumptions.
Similar dynamic for Macron: his party, which has governed with growing consistency on the right, was routed pretty much everywhere. Often finished in 4th or 5th position, behind conservatives, far-right, & one if not 2 left-wing parties.
Unlikely to win aby region next week.
Unlikely to win aby region next week.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
