The shutdown of Apple Daily in Hong Kong is a big deal. The paper has ample money, but the banks in this notionally independent and free financial hub are refusing to do business with them. This was one of the red lines that Beijing was supposed to be afraid to cross.
A second red line crossed recently is Internet censorship. Hong Kong police got an Israeli ISP to take down a pro-democracy site; when the ISP later restored the site, it was blocked in the territory.
The operating theory (or hope) in 2019 was that either of these actions would be intolerable to expats and endanger the territory's status as a financial capital. And China needs Hong Kong as a conduit for corrupt gains in the PRC to connect with the world financial system.
From far away, the dynamic right now looks like a steady tightening of the ratchet. The Hong Kong authorities are proceeding methodically with their new weapon, the National Security Law, to see what will be tolerated by international capital. And capital is very tolerant!
I understand the motivation behind writing various "End of Hong Kong" articles, but they also strike me as counterproductive and defeatist. As the situation worsens, we need to find new ways to engage and help, not write the city off as lost.
Even if you're just an amoral geopolitical person and don't care about the fate of a formerly free city, exacting the maximum price for every violation of Beijing's 1997 commitments to Hong Kong is the best way we have of deterring future aggression against Taiwan.
Two big points of leverage available to us in Hong Kong:
1. If you're a high-level cadre siphoning money in the PRC, you need HK or something like it to convert that loot to an Italian villa
2. Most capital investment still flows through HK, because no one trusts PRC courts
1. If you're a high-level cadre siphoning money in the PRC, you need HK or something like it to convert that loot to an Italian villa
2. Most capital investment still flows through HK, because no one trusts PRC courts
One plea I have to fellow Americans is to not condition your opinion on China with how it plays in our domestic politics. I keep a list of great HK twitter accounts that's a good starting point if you want to learn more and form your own opinions: twitter.com/i/lists/116635…
The National Security Law was enacted to provide a veneer of legality so that multinationals are not spooked away from relying on Hong Kong's notionally independent, British-derived legal system. The task ahead is to make sure this situation is not normalized and tolerated.
Courts are either independent or they're not. There can't be a halfway point where contracts and corporate charters are enforced fairly, but the law is arbitrary when it comes to political crimes. We have to make clear the NSL will destroy Hong Kong's future as a financial center
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