WHO: The delta variant is the fittest coronavirus strain.
I agree 100%. A triple threat: more transmissible, more serious disease, & able to evade one dose of vaccine. The devastation it caused in India shook us.
The risk of getting COVID is much lower after full vaccination. 88% efficacy with Pfizer. 60% efficacy with Astra Zeneca.
The risk of getting seriously ill is also much lower. 94% efficacy with Pfizer. 92% with Astra Zeneca.
In the UK, some developed COVID despite being fully vaccinated. In them, the death rate was 0.6%. However, most fully vaccinated were elderly, and the expected mortality rate in this age group was probably 5-10 times higher without vaccination.
A U turn in the UK due to the delta COVID variant. #GetVaccinated
For those reminding me that we should worry about deaths not cases: I said the same. Then the delta variant & India crisis happened. I still think the vaccines we have will do the job. But we need to improve vaccination rates coz 44% of population fully vaccinated is not enough.
The RECOVERY trial for COVID is the trial that keeps giving. Has already identified 3 life-saving treatments. Found 6 treatments to be not useful.
Publicly funded. Clinically relevant
Why are we not able to do such trials in the US?
1) Poor funding for RCTs 2) Too many cooks
The RECOVERY trial in reality is multiple randomized trials in one. Each trial will cost an order of magnitude more to run in the US. We simply do not have the public funding to support RCTs. Which is a tragedy given how much we spend, and how much we can gain. @NIH@NIHDirector
I have led several RCTs. Some through NIH. Some through Pharma.
The NIH trials were like pulling teeth. The Pharma trials were far easier to pull off. So besides lack of funding we also have a process problem for publicly funded trials. See below.
We also have data that one dose of vaccine is only 33% effective against symptomatic COVID cause by delta variant (AZ or Pfizer). Versus 51% against alpha.
2 doses Pfizer 88% against delta versus 93% against alpha.
For those of you interested in multiple myeloma, here is a brief state of the science for treatment.
1/ For newly diagnosed patients, triplets, VRd or DRd, are the standard of care. Current RCTs are examining if we can improve outcome using quadruplets. Eg. PERSEUS trial.
2/ In newly diagnosed myeloma, another question given the cost & potential toxicity of quadruplets is to start with a triplet, and based on MRD status identify patients who need 4 drugs versus this who do equally well with 3 drugs. Eg: EQUATE trial. @myelomaMD@mtmdphd@eaonc
3/ Auto stem cell transplant is still standard of care for eligible patients. Current data indicate overall survival is similar whether the transplant is done early or delayed. But for many reasons we prefer early transplant for most patients.
The delta variant is the triple threat I have talked about. I am not saying this lightly. I take no pleasure in alarming people. It's just the facts after 2 months of being closely involved with the India COVID crisis. This is not last years COVID. Get vaccinated.
When the FDA approves a drug, it is not only approving the drug. Its actions provide prolonged monopoly protection to a drug in a country where the seller can set whatever price they want, the buyer cannot negotiate price, and competitors will face more severe barriers to entry
If like other Western countries we had a 2-step process for prescription drugs: regulatory approval followed by value based pricing determination, I would have less problem with an FDA that is more lenient.
If like other countries barriers to market entry to competition are not so hard, then I would have less problem with an FDA that is more lenient.