Thread by @ChadPergram

1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Manchin Agreeing to Vote to Start Debate On the Voting Bill

Just a note about Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) agreeing to vote yes to proceed to debate on the voting rights bill.

THIS DOESN’T CHANGE ANYTHING.

2) Democrats now have 50 votes to overcome the filibuster to start debate on the bill. You need 60 to crack a filibuster. So this wasn’t exactly a breakthrough at Yalta.

3) But, Manchin was taking a lot of heat from the left about not being a team player, supporting the Democratic agenda, et al.

So, Manchin developed a compromise plan which Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) embraced.

4) In fact, if the Senate EVER clears the procedural hurdle to begin debate on the bill, Schumer would make Manchin’s plan in order as a SUBSTITUTE for the entire bill. In other words, it’s MANCHIN’s bill, blessed by Stacey Abrams.

However…

5) It’s never going to get that far under these circumstances.

Democrats can’t get to 60 votes to hurdle the filibuster. And they can turn this around on the Republicans and accuse them of blocking the voting bill.

6) Democrats hope to reap political hay off what they will describe as GOP obstruction heading into the midterms if this bill remains stymied.

So, in many respects, this is a little bit of a nothing burger. Manchin developed a compromise for a bill which is going nowhere.

7) He reaps the benefits of looking like a team player and not an obstructionist. Schumer keeps his caucus together and delivers all 50 members as yeas.

8) Meantime, another internecine battle brews as liberal House Democrats are increasingly turning up the heat on President Biden for not getting the voting bill done. White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki defended the President today.

9) “Those words are a fight against the wrong opponent,” said Psaki.

10) In other words, Manchin’s vote and compromise inoculates the President from internal criticism from his left flank. They delivered all 50 Democratic votes. There’s not much more the President can do unless someone can cajole 10 Republicans to come around.

11) Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) described today’s vote as “round one” for the voting bill. But when asked what was “round two,” Schumer really didn’t offer a path forward. He offered a vague statement about having more discussions and not “putting the cart before the horse.”

12) Which brings us back to one key: the future of the filibuster.

If all 50 Democrats can stick together, they could lower the threshold for changing the filibuster – with a tie-breaking vote by Vice President Harris.

13) So while today’s events didn’t alter much, it did return the Senate to the debate about the filibuster and the nuclear option. It also revealed the limits of the Dems power in a 50/50 Senate