As my followers know, I try to stick to facts and not overinterpret them. But to hide early Wuhan patient coronavirus sequences, the exact info promised to @WHO, isn't just evidence of cover-up. It *is* cover-up.
If the excuse for deleting sequences is they're being saved for papers, that doesn't hold water. You can just post to biorxiv to claim priority. And it's 15 months now when we know journals can publish something in 15 days if it's clearly important. "Proximal origins" anyone?
Finally just cautioning that suppression of info doesn't prove the virus must be a known lab leak. It does however indicate a recognition of the possibility of guilt. At the very least PR China is afraid where the evidence will lead so they're burying it and not gathering more.
P.S. A reminder that PR China enacted a policy requiring papers related to COVID-19 origins be approved by some institutional body. So that policy provides an effective mechanism to silence academics. And then withholding info promised to @WHO demonstrates PR China's deceit.
Actually the fact that there was no early coverup, allowing the sequences to be posted, supports the idea that PR China did not know the origins of SARSCoV2 at that time either. But perhaps later as zoonotic evidence remained elusive they realized lab leak was a possibility.
Also the timing of the central review requirement for papers on SARSCoV2 origins and of the sequence deletion refutes the assertions of certain virologists/zoologists that discussing a lab leak possibility in 2021 was what prevented China from sharing more info.
Indeed today's paper by @jbloom_lab is a 9.0 earthquake in our search for understanding of COVID-19 origins. It's very illuminating now to go back and see find the past false statements, i.e. lies, in light of the new data.
After the 2021/02 WHO trip, China claimed to have been transparent in origin tracing: “We wish that the U.S. side can, like China, uphold an open and transparent attitude, and be able to invite WHO experts to the U.S. to conduct origin tracing research"
reuters.com/article/us-hea…
What the WHO team got from Chinese authorities: "They also supplied aggregated data and analysis on retrospective searches through medical records in the months before the Wuhan outbreak was identified, saying that they had found no evidence of the virus."
wsj.com/articles/china…
You can also see a certain member of the @WHO team failing to use critical thinking in evaluating the quality of data he is being given. Good scientists need to always assess data reliability and leave room for unknown unknowns!
nytimes.com/2021/02/14/hea…
So today's data fetch and dump by @jbloom_lab clearly shows that Chinese authorities knew of earlier cases, but lied to @WHO @PeterDaszak and @MarionKoopmans by saying they had found no other cases, then lied to the world by saying they had been transparent.
@jbloom_lab @WHO @PeterDaszak @MarionKoopmans Sadly, I suspect an order is going out right now to wipe hard drives in research institutes across China
And... I think we can drop the "theory" and just say "conspiracy"
P.P.S. To be precise the data Bloom found are from samples of unknown collection date. However the sequences indicate earlier diversification of viruses than the cluster at the Huanan market suggested, so pushes back the timeline. This was not revealed to the WHO team.
And I'm sorry to interrupt my normal focus on COVID-19 vaccines and treatments, but this was too important not to discuss immediately. And the COVID-19 tweets in turn are interrupting my normal protein engineering tweets, but COVID-19 happened, even though none of us asked for it
But it's like clockwork... the day that I finally clear my schedule so I can start writing a paper or grant, some big COVID-19 bombshell has to fall. It feels like being in the Truman Show, or the Matrix. Not a day without drama.
If you want comments on record and in print, other scientists are chiming in
telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…
Makes yesterday's tweet by @PeterHotez even more relevant
Just noticed that we've avoided the more inflammatory allegations that previously arose around SARSCoV2 origins. The thread has stayed focused on discussing the data and how to interpret patient and sequence info not being provided to WHO. The discussion is maturing, a good sign.
Some may still think using the term cover-up to describe the refusal to collect and share standard information is unnecessary. But there is no choice. Violations of agreements, promises, and research norms are happening, and are only going to continue if not called out.

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More from @michaelzlin

21 Jun
Earlier I proposed a simple public health philosophy: "identify the worst-case scenario using the most up-to-date science and recommend easy things that can mitigate that"

No claim to originality; would hope it's the default PH approach actually

Let's apply it now to J&J vax...
10 million Americans have received the J&J vaccine. That's a big enough group for PH officials to care about. They have a vaccine with measured efficacy of ~70% for symptomatic disease and ~90% for hospitalization or severe disease (on a mix of original and alpha strains)
All good, and if we have already vaccinated >75% of people ≥12yo in the US with RNA vaccines, maybe good enough. We'd reach herd immunity, mostly due to the RNA vaccines' ~90% efficacy against all disease, i.e. R0 becomes <1.
Read 20 tweets
20 Jun
Harvard's Meselson asks if current lab guidelines are adequate. With WIV testing new coronaviruses at BSL2, it's a valid question.

BTW that's Meselson of the Meselson-Stahl work. He's a giant in genetics and an expert in biosafety. Finally @nytimes interviews the right person.
I took and TA'ed genetics with Meselson in college. He was working on biosafety and bioweapons then, so has accumulated a lot of knowledge on the subject over decades.
"There’s a huge difference between people who are still trying to prove a point against emotional opposition and people who can look back and say, ‘Yeah, yeah, I was right,’” Dr. Meselson said.
Read 4 tweets
19 Jun
HCWs are the last people who would criticize CDC; they must maintain an united front with CDC to limit the epidemic and make their jobs doable (+ less deadly). So this finding that trust in CDC has dropped in 77% of doctors and 77% of nurses is striking.
webmd.com/lung/news/2021…
The survey doesn't reveal how complaints are distributed within the 77%, e.g. if HCWs think the CDC is being too cautious or too lenient, or just too confusing. But there's been plenty to criticize from both scientific and behavioral points of view, so it's probably all the above
The list of failures is well known, and I'm not just speaking from hindsight. These failures were identified in real-time by many on twitter (even if established media orgs obediently parroted the CDC), and it was the CDC that was slow to learn and reverse.
Read 17 tweets
18 Jun
We usually hear only overall top-line efficacy figures of 66% against symptomatic disease and 93% against hospitalization. We also hear that in the J&J trial, there were no deaths in the vaccinated group. That's across the entire tested population. But even then, to be accurate
... there is considerable imprecision in our knowledge of how well J&J protects against more severe outcomes. The 93% protection v hospitalization has 95% confidence intervals of 73-99%. This large range is due to the small # of people actually hospitalized during the trial.
Our knowledge of protection from death is even weaker. The fact 0 vaccine vs 6 placebo recipients died is often touted as 100% protection against death, even by public health officials. This is unlikely to be the case, and scientifically inaccurate.
Read 23 tweets
16 Jun
Stories such as this one, however well intentioned, are disingenuous and thereby harmful to trust and public health.

It's pointless to gaslight people on J&J's efficacy by pretending it's as good as RNA vaccines. People know 95% > 68% for goodness sake.
theatlantic.com/health/archive…
Paragraph 1 is a no-holds barred plug for J&J extolling its virtues. One statement would be flagged by the FCC as false advertising if it were in a commercial: "It requires just one injection to confer full immunity".

Strange to write that, when it's so easily proven false.
First of all, you know that statement is going to raise eyebrows, because how much sense does it make for J&J to use an adenovirus vector to express spike and reach full immunity with 1 injection, when AZ and Gamaleya using adenovirus vectors to express spike needed 2 injections?
Read 15 tweets
16 Jun
Two new clinical trials for COVID19 vaccine booster shots:

Multi-strain Moderna booster for previous Moderna recipients: clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04…

Original-flavor Moderna booster for Moderna, Pfizer, or J&J recipients:
clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04…

Immunosuppressed are excluded 🙁
The Moderna multi-strain booster (mRNA-1273.211) is combines original mRNA-1273 with mRNA-1273.351 for the Beta B.1.351 variant. It's called "multivalent" which is kind of a misnomer as valency usually refers to number of binding sites, but I guess there wasn't a better term.
mRNA-1273 and mRNA-1273.351 each were already shown safe and effective in boosting neutralizing antibodies when administered as a third shot
investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/…
Read 6 tweets

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