1) The Afghan government's "strategy" - if you can call it that - appears to be to abandon so called remote and unimportant district and defend the major cities. This is recipe for failure, which I have written about for years. More below...
2) I wrote this in 2018: "While US and Afghan military officials have claimed that Afghanistan's remote areas are strategically insignificant, the Taliban has used its mastery of them as a springboard to take the fight to more populated areas." Cont... longwarjournal.org/archives/2018/…
3) "In these remote districts, the Taliban has established its shadow government, which it uses to spread its ideology and further its military aims. Here, the Taliban taxes the local populations, recruits fighters, establishes training camps and military stockpiles ..."
4) " ... while using these areas as staging points to attack neighboring districts. In the south, the Taliban controls and hotly contests a band of districts, panning from Ghazni and Zabul in the east all the way into Helmand, Nimruz, and Farah in the west ..."
5) "... that it uses to take the fight to the Afghan government. Over the past six months [in 2018], this safe haven was used to launch major incursions into Ghazni and Farah cities."
6) As you can see today, this is playing out just as I predicted. The Taliban has used the remote districts to expand its control, and now it is snowballing. The Afghan gov'ts "strategy" playing right into the Taliban's strengths. Afghan troops are demoralized and surrendering.
7) Many of the districts are falling to the taliban because the local security forces and government leaders recognize that the Afghan gov't can't or won't (or both) defend them.
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1) The U.S. military will not conduct airstrikes to support the ANDSF against the Taliban, Gen. Frank McKenzie, head of CENTCOM, said. This was entirely predictable. President Biden wants to end this so-called endless war. However the war - the Endless Jihad - will continue.
2) From @VOANews
“That would be the reason for any strikes that we do in Afghanistan after we leave, (it) would have to be that we’ve uncovered someone who wants to attack the homeland of the United States, one of our allies and partners,” voanews.com/usa/voa-exclus…
@VOANews 3) In other words, the U.S. military will only conduct "over the horizon" strikes against terrorists plotting to attack the U.S. or allies. Read: the Al Qaeda, the Islamic State, etc. Not the Taliban.
1) I believe that the Taliban, via intermediaries (local tribal elders, etc.) is negotiating the surrender of many district centers. There are numerous reports of ANDSF abandoning outposts, bases and district centers.
2) There is evidence of this in the Afghan press. From @TOLOnews: "Some districts were handed over to the Taliban in the west without resistance and their equipment was left for militants,” said Sadiq Qaderi, an MP from Herat.
@TOLOnews 3) @TOLOnews on 6/12/2021:
"Elders--or others--who act as mediators to negotiate between government forces and the Taliban-- causing security force members to abandon their posts--have been arrested, the Ministry of Interior Affairs (MoI) said on Sunday." tolonews.com/afghanistan-17…
1) Afghan officials have confirmed that Tolak in Ghor & Sozma Qala n Sar-I-Pul have fallen to the Taliban (Taliban officially claimed this on Voice of Jihad). Taliban also claimed it captured Arghanj Khaw in Badakhshan; Afghan officials previously said was in danger of falling.
2) Taliban also has claimed it capteure Zari in Balkh. Afghan officials admitted the district center had to be evacuated and moved to an alternate location. This is a good example of Taliban control. Zari has been contested for a while. tolonews.com/afghanistan-17…
1) Not gonna happen: @ashrafghani: “It is our responsibility to merge the Taliban in the structure of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan..." tolonews.com/afghanistan/gh…
@ashrafghani 2) The Taliban has been very clear: it will note share power. "The Islamic Emirate has not readily embraced this death and destruction for the sake of some silly ministerial posts or a share of the power." longwarjournal.org/archives/2016/…
@ashrafghani 3) The Taliban has has been clear about its position on the "poisonous deviant beliefs of atheism, communism, secularism, democracy, and other satanic western and disbelieving ideologies in order to mislead the Muslims with their deviant ideologies” longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/…
1) For all of you reporters who shamelessly shilled for the U.S. Taliban withdrawal deal, think about this: During the process, @US4AfghanPeace said that Pakistan was a true partner for peace. Today, Pakistan overturned the murder conviction of Omar Saeed Sheikh.
@US4AfghanPeace 2) Omar Saeed Sheikh planned @WSJ reporter Daniel Pearl's kidnapping. Pearl was then beheaded by Al Qaeda , which was recorded in a gruesome video. Sheikh was sentenced for kidnapping & murder, but a Pakistani court overturned the murder conviction.
@US4AfghanPeace@WSJ 3) Pakistani court said there was no proof Sheikh was involved in murder. But in any sane court, if you kidnap someone and they are subsequently murdered, you are guilty of murder as well.
1) @realDonaldTrump's withdrawal from Syria is a big foreign policy mistake. The US is selling out yet another ally. But this was a mistake that predated Trump. US chose a poor ally. YPG is not the "poor Kurds" that the media makes it out to be. This is the PKK's Syrian branch.
@realDonaldTrump 2) If you insist on pretending the YPG is not the PKK, here are photos of US Special Forces at a "YPG" funeral in 2017. Note the PKK and Oculan flags flying at the funeral, with US armored vehicles flying Old Glory in the background.
@realDonaldTrump 3) This is disgraceful. The PKK is a specially designated terrorist organization. The PKK is responsible for killing tens of thousands of Turks during a bloody civil war.