Thread by @NiskanenCenter

NEW PAPER and THREAD: The waiting list for green cards has grown well into the millions.

The wait times = decades.

Cost to the U.S. economy = billions.

Recapturing these green cards is possible and will add billions to the U.S. GDP.
niskanencenter.org/stop-the-incin…

Administrative errors and #COVID19 have left hundreds of thousands of green card slots unused.

(Want more on how GCs work and why we have the slots that we have? See this from @chooseboundless).
boundless.com/immigration-re…

Just how bad is the green card backlog? @catoinstitute’s @David_J_Bier has found that the employment-based green card backlog surpassed 1.2 million applicants last year and could double by FY 2030.
cato.org/blog/employmen…

People from countries with a high volume of green card applicants are hit particularly hard. It’s estimated that 200,000 Indians will die while waiting in line for their green card and may have to wait for 80+ years to get out of the backlog. Not a hopeful situation.

It looks even worse for family-based visas. @Chooseboundless estimates that the wait times for some individuals will have to wait 20-130 years to get a green card and there are millions in the backlog.

Usually, green card slots are lost incrementally, but the #COVID19 pandemic meant that hundreds of thousands of slots went unused, and the backlog suddenly got a lot bigger. They’re at risk of being lost all at once, on Sept 30, 2021.

What’s the cost of our green card backlog and losing more green card slots?

❌Employers suffer costly delays and /or leave positions vacant
❌Talented migrants go elsewhere
❌The U.S. loses its reputation as a desirable place to be

Recapturing unused green cards would add hundreds of billions of dollars to U.S. GDP over 10 years and have a positive fiscal impact of billions in net revenue to federal, state, and local governments.

There are 3 ways to do this 👇

1). Administrative recapture: The executive branch could act alone to recapture over 231,000 unused employment-based green cards, adding $216 billion to GDP over 10 years.

2). Amending the AC21 Act: This already recaptured some 180,000 unused employment-based green cards. If Congress amended it, over 339,000 additional unused green cards could be recaptured, which would add $104 billion to GDP over 10 years.

3). If the recapture provisions in the U.S. Citizenship Act (USCA) were signed into law, over 940,000 unused employment-based and family preference green cards would be recaptured, adding $815 billion to GDP over 10 years.

In summary - here’s the likely effect of green card recapture on GDP, relative to status quo, from 2022-2032.

We also estimate administrative recapture would have a long-term net fiscal impact to all levels of government of more than $90b, AC21 recapture would have a long-term net fiscal impact of $118b, and USCA recapture would have a long-term net fiscal impact of $363b.

These estimates showing the economic / fiscal benefits of green card recapture are based ONLY on the effect it would have on new arrivals. For simplicity’s sake, we’ve ignored the impact that green cards going to migrants already in the U.S. would have.

Methodology 👇

The economic benefits of more green cards going to people already in the U.S. would be massive, giving individuals access to employment opportunities and enabling them to invest in education and training. Their spouses/children would also be able to work. #hb1 #eb4 #eb1

Without immediate action, the United States could miss out on hundreds of billions of dollars of GDP growth over the next 10 years. Recapturing lost green cards is a straightforward way we can ensure that immigrants and their families can build their lives in the U.S.

Read the whole paper by Niskanen's @JeremyLNeufeld and @FAScientists's @LK_Milliken and @doug_rand. niskanencenter.org/stop-the-incin…