June 2021 update of U.S. Population Mortality Observations Preview of 2020 Experience -- now out from @SOActuaries

soa.org/globalassets/a…

A few notes to follow
Table 1 on page 11: 2020 U.S. Population mortality rates and change by age group. With & without COVID.

Look particularly at the "without COVID" column -- very large increases for age 15-44.
Now through 2020Q3: external causes of death page 17

Accidents: up in Q2 & Q3
Suicides: down in Q2 & Q3
Assault (aka homicide): up in Q2 & Q3 by a lot

Let's look where we have age-level breakdowns
Accidents page 25:

there are two graphs, because of the high trend for age 85+.... these accidents are primarily falls for the oldest age group.

Three biggest categories for accidental deaths (we don't have full detail for 2020 yet): falls, drug overdoses, vehicle accidents
Even before 2020, the trend for accidental deaths for younger age groups was bad... and it was essentially alcohol and drug overdoses driving that, not motor vehicle accidents.
Suicide, page 27 -- this is a messy long-term trend

Part of the mess is that male/female trends aren't separated.

Just to point out -- age 45-54 had been the highest for rate for 2007-2017. Oldest age group, 85+, surpassed by 2019. Suicide rates for old men -- very high
More on suicide from page 28:

Let me interpret -- The lines show percentage change for 12-month-period ending that quarter (so 2020Q2 percentage is comparing July 2019-June 2020 against April 2019-March 2020)
In 2020Q2 we saw decrease in suicide rate for all ages except 85+

In 2020Q3, we saw increases for 15-34 year olds, decreases at other ages.

So while suicides are down overall, they were up for specific age groups, and in a few months we should see full year breakout
I'm going to be talking about some of these trends to @society_sir members in a couple of hours.

I will put up a blog post later (and video) to go over these results -- a lot of people have been dissecting COVID mortality, but non-COVID mortality increases are also important.
Anyway, prepping for my talk -- I'll answer questions later.

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More from @meepbobeep

14 Feb 20
Before there was Taxing Tuesday on STUMP there was Soda Tax Stupidity!

Here is the first appearance of the Cook County soda tax on the blog: 25 July 2017
stump.marypat.org/article/785/il…

"Since this is Illinois, they couldn’t pass a simple soda tax without screwing it all up"
the Cook County soda tax, alas, was dead by December 2017.

In the meantime, I had a lot of fun with this idiotic tax.

I often ran those posts on Fridays, just due to their sheer stupidity (and wanting a good laugh for the weekend)

Let's look back at the short-lived soda tax!
The soda tax got a slow start, with me just dumping it w/ all my other "let's beat up on Chicago and Illinois!" stuff

stump.marypat.org/article/789/fr…
Read 25 tweets
2 Mar 19
So popping out of earlier discussion thread

Chicago MEABF is one of the city pension funds. A 2017 stress test was done meabf.org/assets/media/5…
Here are the results I see in that report: they tested multiple historical scenarios (2008 financial crisis, Black Monday, etc.) as well as some simple scenarios (flat market)... and projected to 2022. So it's just a five-year stress test. Why five years?
Because that's what the client asked for.

Not because it makes much sense for a pension fund whose promises extend decades.

But let's see the result from some of those scenarios
Read 11 tweets

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