June 2021 update of U.S. Population Mortality Observations Preview of 2020 Experience -- now out from @SOActuaries
soa.org/globalassets/a…
A few notes to follow
soa.org/globalassets/a…
A few notes to follow
Table 1 on page 11: 2020 U.S. Population mortality rates and change by age group. With & without COVID.
Look particularly at the "without COVID" column -- very large increases for age 15-44.
Look particularly at the "without COVID" column -- very large increases for age 15-44.
Now through 2020Q3: external causes of death page 17
Accidents: up in Q2 & Q3
Suicides: down in Q2 & Q3
Assault (aka homicide): up in Q2 & Q3 by a lot
Let's look where we have age-level breakdowns
Accidents: up in Q2 & Q3
Suicides: down in Q2 & Q3
Assault (aka homicide): up in Q2 & Q3 by a lot
Let's look where we have age-level breakdowns
Accidents page 25:
there are two graphs, because of the high trend for age 85+.... these accidents are primarily falls for the oldest age group.
Three biggest categories for accidental deaths (we don't have full detail for 2020 yet): falls, drug overdoses, vehicle accidents
there are two graphs, because of the high trend for age 85+.... these accidents are primarily falls for the oldest age group.
Three biggest categories for accidental deaths (we don't have full detail for 2020 yet): falls, drug overdoses, vehicle accidents
Even before 2020, the trend for accidental deaths for younger age groups was bad... and it was essentially alcohol and drug overdoses driving that, not motor vehicle accidents.
Suicide, page 27 -- this is a messy long-term trend
Part of the mess is that male/female trends aren't separated.
Just to point out -- age 45-54 had been the highest for rate for 2007-2017. Oldest age group, 85+, surpassed by 2019. Suicide rates for old men -- very high
Part of the mess is that male/female trends aren't separated.
Just to point out -- age 45-54 had been the highest for rate for 2007-2017. Oldest age group, 85+, surpassed by 2019. Suicide rates for old men -- very high
More on suicide from page 28:
Let me interpret -- The lines show percentage change for 12-month-period ending that quarter (so 2020Q2 percentage is comparing July 2019-June 2020 against April 2019-March 2020)
Let me interpret -- The lines show percentage change for 12-month-period ending that quarter (so 2020Q2 percentage is comparing July 2019-June 2020 against April 2019-March 2020)
In 2020Q2 we saw decrease in suicide rate for all ages except 85+
In 2020Q3, we saw increases for 15-34 year olds, decreases at other ages.
So while suicides are down overall, they were up for specific age groups, and in a few months we should see full year breakout
In 2020Q3, we saw increases for 15-34 year olds, decreases at other ages.
So while suicides are down overall, they were up for specific age groups, and in a few months we should see full year breakout
I'm going to be talking about some of these trends to @society_sir members in a couple of hours.
I will put up a blog post later (and video) to go over these results -- a lot of people have been dissecting COVID mortality, but non-COVID mortality increases are also important.
I will put up a blog post later (and video) to go over these results -- a lot of people have been dissecting COVID mortality, but non-COVID mortality increases are also important.
Anyway, prepping for my talk -- I'll answer questions later.
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