1/ "The map is not the territory" is a very interesting mental model.

The idea is that abstractions aren't the real thing.

Well, duh! But there are actually a lot of applications...
2/ An obvious one is that stocks are abstractions of businesses.

A stock is not a business.

Even the concept of a business is an abstraction.

No two businesses are the same. A business is just a collection of people doing things and making decisions for others (customers).
3/ The application is that when a stock price is extremely volatile (the abstraction), the underlying business is likely not nearly as volatile (the territory).

And we can take advantage of these dislocations (@ Mr. Market)
4/ Another application is in personal relationships. Maybe we get in an argument with someone because we think they were being rude.

Our thoughts about what they said are an abstraction and may not be what they really meant (the territory).
5/ This mental model is very obvious but the core implication is that we don't know nearly as much as we think we do.

We love putting labels on things but that can abstract away the reality of the situation.
6/ That makes me think of another example -- moats.

Moats are an abstraction. It's easy to put them into categories (network effects, switching costs, brands, scale, etc.) but just b/c it falls into one of those, doesn't mean our brains can turn off.
7/ A moat is not the advantage. Maybe it can fully explain the advantage but reality is often more complex.

It's not to say that frameworks aren't valuable. We need them to help us make cognitive shortcuts. But it's also important to remember: the map is not the territory.

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More from @investing_city

23 Jun
1/ Investing is hard because it takes the perfect balance of conviction and humility.

For instance, a stock you know well has gone up a bunch.

Do you trim because the forward return is lower than alternatives or do you hold?
2/ On one hand, the decision seems easy. Lower forward return -> trim.

On the other hand, there are lots of considerations:

• Are you adjusting for taxes?
• Are your forward return assumptions are too low?
• What about when adjusting for your level of company knowledge?
3/ If you're rotating into a company you know fairly well instead of really well, what's the risk that your conviction gets shaken?

How much of a premium should you place on this? Should there be any premium at all?
Read 5 tweets
15 Jun
1/ I didn't realize just how big Binance is.

In the TTM, it did $10.5 trillion in volume.
2/ In comparison, Coinbase did $700 billion, less than 7% of Binance.

Source: nomics.com/exchanges/gdax…
3/ What's interesting is that if you drill down on the "dominance" by each crypto for each exchange, the top 3 exchanges (Binance, Huobi and OkEx) all have 80%+ dominance from USDT (Tether).
Read 7 tweets
4 Jun
SentinelOne looks like it's where CrowdStrike was 3 years ago.

The numbers are extremely similar. We'll see how SentinelOne scales from here. It's a tough act to follow as CrowdStrike has executed wonderfully.
• SentinelOne's (S) FY '21 TTM revenue was $113 million
• CrowdStrike's (CRWD) FY '18 TTM revenue was $118 million

So yep, pretty much exactly 3 years apart.
• S's gross margin for Q4 2021: 51%
• CRWD's gross margin for Q4 2018: 50%

• S's GAAP operating loss for 2021: -134%
• CRWD's GAAP operating loss for 2018: -111%

• S's FCF margin for 2021: -82%
• CRWD's FCF margin for 2018: -69%
Read 7 tweets
20 May
1/6 Mini-Thread

Roblox may have the most optionality of any business I've looked at.

I realize that's quite a statement.

So why do I think that?
2/ Well, it's a platform for user-generated games. If you think about any UGC platform, once there is a critical mass, content can scale infinitely.

Nearly every day, 8 million developers are creating more and more experiences.
3/ Right now, Roblox looks like silly games of delivering pizza or being a DJ, or taking care of an animal.

But Roblox just provides the tools, and the developers will create things we haven't even dreamed of yet.
Read 6 tweets
10 May
1/15

An interesting metric to track is EBIT conversion.

EBIT conversion = EBIT margins / gross margins

Here's why it's interesting and how you can use it to assess business quality...

[THREAD] ⬇️
2/ It's a rough way to filter through business quality.

Why?

1) Low gross margins don't give much room for high EBIT margins (which are a key driver for ROIC)
2) Low opex hints at some sort of moat
3/ For example, if a company does $10 billion in revenue but has 10% gross margins, that's $1 billion in gross profit.

But say the company brings in $300 million in EBIT.

That's a 3% EBIT margin or 30% EBIT conversion (300 mil/1 bil)
Read 15 tweets
13 Apr
If you back out cost of revenue for Roblox, you get 75% gross margins.

But if you take out infrastructure, trust and safety (depreciated server costs), gross margins are more like 50%.

Then, if you count DevEx fees as part of COGS, "gross margins" are 13%.

Am I off here?
The interesting thing is that the S-1 says:
In the past 2 years, DevEx fees as a percentage of revenue were 22%.

This year, they shot up to 36% and the S-1 suggests that proportion should continue to increase.
Read 4 tweets

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