Storage (owning a lot of oil tanks, or taking advantage of price rises while your tankers are steaming across the seas) has long been key to the business.
The storage opportunity in a renewable economy is enormous, whether it's buying cheap midday solar and holding it for the evening grid load peak or doing the same on a seasonal basis for summer or winter cooling and heating loads.
Geographic arbitrage is harder. Electricity transmission lines are natural monopolies with regulated profits. Commodity traders don't tend to own pipelines because they operate a similar way.
In terms of quality arbitrage, there''s opportunities too in the shift to hydrogen, though chemically it's a lot simpler than hydrocarbons.
Still, there's clear non-greenwashing reasons for commodity traders to welcome the birth of a brand-new commodity market.
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The immediate problem is that shipping containers are in the wrong place, piling up in North America and Europe because hard-pressed vessels have been returning to port empty so as to save time.
This shows up in the differential container rates for outbound and return voyages:
That price dislocation is a good thing, giving container lines a strong economic incentive to move boxes to where they're most needed.
Compare the price gap that's opened up on ex-China routes to the stability of the transatlantic passage on that chart:
Something I don't think is widely understood is that the U.S. Department of Defence has for generations been one of the single biggest drivers of vaccine development and deployment globally.
Far more important than the Gates Foundation or any pharma company, IMO.
This arguably starts with George Washington inoculating the Continental Army against smallpox during the Revolutionary War.
But then later, yellow fever, adenovirus, typhoid, hepatitis A and B, meningococcal, influenza ... the list goes on.
It doesn't really make much sense for private companies to invest in vaccine development because thr business model — one shot and you're protected, ideally for life — is just terrible from a profit point of view.
Is a nuclear power plant on the edge of China’s 60 million-strong Pearl River Delta megalopolis on the verge of an emergency? It doesn’t look like it — but that doesn’t mean there’s no cause for concern:
@bopinion The worrying thing in this incident isn't the leak of nuclear fission products, but the leak of information.
It shouldn't require CNN, the U.S. Department of Energy, and a French utility to tell the world what's going on at a Chinese power station.
@bopinion The most important part of the CNN report, IMO, isn't the raw information about a nuclear fuel leak (which seems pretty routine) but the insight we get about how nuclear regulation appears to be conducted in China:
Polysilicon is the key raw material for solar power. The core of a solar panel is a thin slice of polysilicon.
About 45% of the world's polysilicon comes from Xinjiang, and three of the four biggest producers have alleged links to the forced labour of Uyghur minorities.
Polysilicon prices right now are at their highest levels in 2012.
This is quite a big deal. Persistent high prices (of up to $450/kg) for polysilicon during the 2000s are probably the main reason no one expected solar power to get cheap back then.
We don't, IMO, talk enough about Mongolia's success story. While other central Asian republics drifted into authoritarianism after the fall of the USSR, it's built a robust and lively democracy with a booming economy:
Still, despite high scores for things like democratic and press freedoms, corruption is rife and the past few years have seen a rolling constitutional crisis as the Mongolian People's Party and Democratic Party have duked it out for supremacy.
On the question of how the smallpox scabs made their way out from the First Fleet's medical supplies, it's worth pointing out that there were expert lock-pickers among the convicts: gutenberg.net.au/ebooks/e00084.…
Convicts and soldiers were the ones coming into often fatal conflict with the local Dharug and Eora so it would hardly be surprising if some of them hatched a plan to shift the field of battle in their favour.