After winning all 3 of their Group stage fixtures and obtaining 3 Clean Sheets along the way, it's no surprise that Italy are the favourites to progress. In turn, that leaves Austria as the underdogs.
๐ฎ๐น Italy - 80%
๐ฆ๐น Austria - 20%
The second-favourites are France, who won the Group of death. Their probability of progressing is only a small fraction less than Italy's. As for Switzerland, that means they will probably exit the Knockout stage sooner rather than later.
๐ซ๐ท France - 79%
๐จ๐ญ Switzerland - 21%
Being unbeaten in the Group stage, Spain have a solid chance of winning their tie. They are almost 3 times more likely to qualify for the Quarter-Final than Croatia are.
๐ช๐ธ Spain - 74%
๐ญ๐ท Croatia - 26%
Winning all 3 of their matches in Group C, Netherlands are pretty much just as likely to progress as Spain are. Czech Republic are also amongst the outsiders.
The beloved Denmark have shown great spirit in the absence of their talisman (Eriksen), they have a good chance of making it through to the Quarter-Final. Meaning Wales are up against it.
This fixture is a tough one to call. Belgium are an extremely talented team and therefore they are the favourites, but not by much. The reigning champions [Portugal] still have a decent shot at progressing too.
๐ง๐ช Belgium - 57%
๐ต๐น Portugal - 43%
The odds replicate the last matchup, with Sweden being the favourites and Ukraine not being a million miles behind. The Swedes topped their Group (ahead of Spain), whereas Ukraine scraped through in 3rd place.
๐ธ๐ช Sweden - 57%
๐บ๐ฆ Ukraine - 43%
This could go either way. England are a small fraction ahead of Germany in the odds. To be fair they did top their Group with 3 Clean Sheets, whilst Germany conceded 5 goals. A German exit was on the cards against Hungary until the 84th minute.
My options:
KDB
Fernandes
Martial
Foden
Salah
Ings
Jesus
Opposition - Last 3 results / xGConceded:
City WAT 1-3 WHU / 1.2 2-1 NEW / 1.21 2-1 NOR 1.02
United WHU 3-1 WAT / 0.6 4-0 NOR / 0.64 0-1 BUR / 0.72
Liverpool CHE 1-0 NOR / 0.06 0-3 SHE 2.38 3-2 CRY / 1.29
Southampton BOU 1-2 MCI / 0.75 4-1 LEI / 1.93 0-0 TOT / 0.38
City are the only ones playing a team that consistently have over 1xGC in their last 3 matches, it's important to remember Norwich was one of those fixtures. Norwich have the lowest xG since the restart with just 3.55. 1.02 of that figure derives from the Watford match alone.