From tonight’s early Newsnight… a Hancock half hour… of sorts…
Opposition calling for Health Sec to be fired by the PM - note we obviously asked the Government, backbench MPs and former aides to defend him - no one was available
One of the team behind the leaked photo video scoop Harry Cole on the wider implications of the Health Secs actions…
Can Health Sec stand at podium to ask people to extend any form of restrictions, continue to wear masks even really say slogan “hands face and space” again… this is the view from Gabriel Pogrund, who first reported on the appointment of his friend as a non exec director
And Ayesha Hazarika on the public reaction to these events;
And our Ben Chu surveys how public attitudes to political scandals appear to have changed…
Also mentioned on show that public acceptance of ongoing restrictions can not be taken for granted - eg widespread booing, multiple times, of the safety announcements to wear masks at the england match on Tuesday - eg far more audible than eg anything when the team took the knee
…Which is not a representative sample obviously, but one of the few events where a temperature can be taken in a large crowd. It’s clearly a particularly sensitive time for anyone needing to send clear message on ongoing adherence to social restrictions…
FDA chief just talking to Mishal about role of non exec director in holding a department to account… what we referred to last night - minutes from the DHSC board attended by the Health Secretary’s friend - lessons learnt exercise on first six months of COVID/ dhsc performance
Actually why hasn’t this been published?

“Board heard how the Department is applying a continuous approach to learning lessons from Covid-19 response. Reflections of first 6 months into Covid-19 response were presented to the Board as a snapshot to inform wider policy making.”

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More from @faisalislam

24 Jun
NEW:

UK natural population declined in 2020, after spike in pandemic deaths, and ongoing long term decline in birth rate.

Across all four nations provisional figures show:
689,698 deaths - well up on normal
684,639 births

Natural population fall of 5k ...
v v rare
V v rare. Only happened in one set of figures since WW2 says @jdportes in the late 1970s.
Had to work this out from 3 different data sources - stress figures are provisional - trend is driven by really notable & yet little commented on collapse in fertility, combined with the shocking death rise during pandemic...

Across UK in 2020 Scotland pushes UK fig negative
Read 8 tweets
22 Jun
form guide in the shooting warm up - Grealish 0/4 saka 3/4 Kane 1/4 Sterling 2/4 …. Just bring on Sancho and Rashford already!
Half time peek at the scottish game - good luck to the tartan army…. Mctominay to score the winner…
Trying to work out which economic chart I could overlay on to this…
Read 4 tweets
22 Jun
NEW:

Official Government figures released this morning show Foreign Direct Investment into the UK in the year to March, at its lowest level (in terms of annual projects and jobs created) in a decade, at 1,538 projects, down 17% in past year, and down 32% since 2016-17 peak.
The context here was that in the calendar year 2020, for example, UNCTAD reported a 42% fall in global FDI by value - ie a clear pandemic effect - though on this measure (there are many different measures) UK went down to zero, alongside Italy unctad.org/system/files/o…
Past year’s figures show across the board hit to new investments (-23%), expansions (-5%) and M&A (-11%)

But there is also a clear trend since 2016 on the first two on these official numbers...
Read 8 tweets
22 Jun
Govt releases macroeconomic study of joining Trans Pacific Trade deal... based on existing members, it is a relatively modest £1.8bn in 15 year’s time, or 0.09% of GDP...

DIT points to possibility of other nations, say Thailand and the S Korea joining boosting it to 5.5bn/ 0.3%
If US joins TPP, and the US and UK dont do a deal, then the Govt anticipates a £19.7bn boost in total to trade, though that is a forecast of one hypothetical on another one..

gains that are calculated by Govt are modest, arise out of the eradication of many “non tariff measures”
Two interesting things on above - overwhelming gains of TPP are on trade with Malaysia and Brunei - they are going to take keenest interest here...

Malaysian free trade negotiations with EU stalled nearly a decade ago amid dispute esp re palm oil.

look like restarting now tho.
Read 5 tweets
10 Jun
Interesting wide ranging 5 page joint statement between PM and President Biden - but notably no reference at all to a “comprehensive trade agreement” as there was in the previous ones with President Trump

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Here’s the equivalent paragraph from the statement with Trump in 2019...
Paragraph on Northern Ireland...and the Belfast/ Good Friday Agreement, PM & POTUS “reaffirm their commitment to protect its delicate balance”
Read 6 tweets
10 Jun
POTUS announces donation of half a billion Pfizer vaccines made in the USA to developing countries…
US gov will buy at cost - Pfizer CEO @AlbertBourla says none of the existing variants have escaped his vaccine, they are developing and hope to apply for approval this year for an oral treatment against COVID-19, and have a plan for 100 day development for new vaccine if needed.
Obviously as its supplied at cost, it’s effectively also a donation from the German inventors of the vaccine at Biontech: investors.biontech.de/news-releases/…
Read 6 tweets

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