There was a significant increase in gun ownership over the last two years. Despite how this tweet frames the issue, though, that doesn't necessarily mean the increase in gun ownership is causing the increase in violent crime we're experiencing. In fact, it probably isn't.
https://twitter.com/JDVance1/status/1408068273527087111
I would argue, it's likely the exact opposite. An analysis @CharlesFLehman and I did last year showed the biggest relative spike in gun sales came after the widespread rioting and violence America experienced last summer. freebeacon.com/national-secur…
@CharlesFLehman Additionally, those spiking gun sales are shorthand for spiking gun background checks. That's what we're really talking about when we talk numbers on gun sales. It's unlikely, but not impossible, a person who completed a background check to buy a gun immediately commits a crime.
@CharlesFLehman You can see this in the ATF's trace data. The average time between a gun sale conducted through a licensed dealer and when that same gun shows up in a crime is quite long. In 2019, it was 8.29 years. atf.gov/resource-cente…
@CharlesFLehman It's possible these longtime trends have reversed over the past year and a half. Perhaps people completing background checks to buy guns in 2020 were far more likely to immediately commit crimes with them than before. But I haven't seen evidence of that.
@CharlesFLehman We also have evidence a significant number of those sales were to new gun owners. A National Shooting Sports Foundation survey of dealers and a study by University of California researchers independently found 40% of buyers in early 2020 were new buyers. freebeacon.com/elections/more…
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