Thread by @gmbutts

This is interesting research. @LyleGreg is one of the best, most detail oriented pollsters in Canada. If there is going to be an election, this seems like a plausible pre-game snapshot. 1…

https://twitter.com/macleans/status/1408501498967904256

The big thing going on is the collapse of the Conservative Party in its current form, which Greg states more diplomatically. It’s one of those small handful of superfactors that can generate really big changes you don’t always appreciate on the surface. 2

3. The last time something like this happened, it happened to the Libs in 2011. A long period of decline generated an apparent sea change in the campaign. The result was a bunch of weird splits that gave both the NDP & Cons a bunch of seats they don’t normally win.

4. If Greg’s scenario develops, the Cons are as likely to finish 3rd as they are to win. Voters, especially in Ontario, will desert a lost cause. They could stay home or vote Lib.

5. It also suggests the big focus of a campaign would be whether voters believe the Libs will be as progressive with a majority as with another minority. Expect big fights between Singh and Trudeau on that question.

6. Unlike 2015/19 I’m not involved in planning the next campaign. But if I were looking at the field Greg describes, that’s the fight I’d be prepping to have. -30-

One more thing. Someone just asked me on DM if O’Toole could be the Cons’ Ignatieff. I don’t believe Ignatieff was the Lib’s Ignatieff. The problems with LPC in 2011 were long developing and went beyond the leadership.

Make that two more. This is all assuming @LyleGreg’s research is right, which I have no reason to doubt. It’s also a pregame analysis on paper. As we all know, they play the games on ice, not on paper.