Thread by @APHClarkson

Now that UK government messaging faces a shift towards risk management rather than risk elimination, it needs leaders with the credibility to generate public confidence that this shift will not generate a new and different crisis that flows out of the current crisis

COVID19 as a crisis has gone from an unknown unknown to a known unknown to a known known. The risk parameters and options generated by the current crisis are now a familiar political debate.

In my experience, that's when risks are highest of the next unknown unknown taking shape

The Eurozone crisis squeezed other political issues as the dominant theme of European political debate between 2008 and 2013, even as risks built up in the Syrian War and between Ukrainian and Russian society in ways that generated new migration and military shocks in 2014/15

In 2011-2014, a small and fractious network of analysts became increasingly concerned over developments in Syria, Turkey, Ukraine and Russia and how they could hit the EU hard

Yet in 2014/15 policymakers and news media fixated by the Eurozone crisis were still taken by surprise

A UK leadership that revolves around its own petty infighting and a UK opposition paralysed by an electoral inferiority complex are not going to be able to think strategically in ways that take note of concerns among analysts and scholars about what the next crisis could be