Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ Profile picture
Jun 26, 2021 19 tweets 11 min read Read on X
#Nigeria IS West Africa released new video, covering JAS (Jamā'at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da'wah wa'l-Jihād) fighters pledging allegience (bay'ah) to IS & the Caliph, joining ISWA, making statements to local+wider communities, & lastly fighting with ISWA against NA near Firgi, Bama.
1/
Whilst most of my followers aren't here for the intra-jihadi drama, this video is actually very significant because it shows JAS fighters, previously loyal to the infamous Abubakar Shekau (Split frm ISWA in 2016) who despite his crazy appearance was quite effective.

(Old pic)
2/
Full details of Shekau's demise & "death" are fairly unclear; 1 thing is clear; quantities of his fighters have joined ISWA & have started operations under WA banner (SE. Borno); given they never regarded themselves as leaving IS this gets interesting.
3/
These fighters regarded themselves (as did Shekau) as the legitimate branch of IS in West Africa, and ISWA as imposters who had strayed. So despite the formidable personal loyalty Shekau obtained, this factor (among others which I won't detail) made a big shift possible.
4/
So, Calibre Obscura, gun guy, why give all this background? Show us some guns!

OK. The video as I mentioned is mainly Bay'ah & unity speeches; there's little combat. However, we do see status guns w/ speakers, primarily the Polish FB Beryl M762 used by higher tier NA units.
5/
The ones we see are quite interesting, as they seem to have had their M4-style stocks swapped for Romanian/East German style side folding stocks. The practice is quite common with IS; but good to note in this particular case. M762 have been captured by IS in multiple attacks.
6/
M762 was rarely so often seen in IS media; however it seems that it is being given a new status here. Quite apart from the reliable and effective nature of the Beryl, these guns have the "tactical" edge that other status weapons have to set them apart.
7/
As this video shows (presumed) notable(s) from IS during bay'ah ceremonies, we also get a look at an ex-NA Special Forces AK-74 w/ the ZenitCo kit. This was previously the main status weapon of ISWA speakers/fighters in videos, linking back to AK-74 significance in MENA.
8/
Thinking back to JAS, their main status weapon for squad commanders and above was the Zastava M21 S AK (M762 on right), which we can see in this video from the Sambisa forest (Sambisa was previously a key Shekau stronghold). These were captured from Cameroon's BIR, mainly.
9/
The significance of the M21 is such that if combat footage emerges of JAS fighters emerges (or ex JAS...) then one can usually tell command figures by the presence of the M21 S, and this rule has not been broken by the merger with IS; see distinctive stock w/ this commander.
10/
The rifle also appears (during the raid against the NA in Bama) with this young ISWA (former JAS) fighter, who despite his age appears to be someone significant; not least his ability to speak. The AK all the way from Kragujevac, Serbia has a significance out in the bush.
11/
Other arms seen are standard; there's nothing much to say (RPG-7, PK(M), AK, etc) but worth noting that AKMS also have a certain status as compared to fixed stock AKs, likely why other speaker & those flanking can be seen w/ them. IS fighters adequately kitted, for sure.
12/
Overall, the most significant thing to me was the sheer quantities (100s) of JAS fighters joining IS, many of them underage. This will be a significant boost to IS Cadre, even if they prefer not to use children in actual combat to such a degree as Shekau.
13/
For me; video is a serious power move by IS to stamp their approval/legitimacy on JAS, or large portions of it, being re-subsumed by the "official" branch of IS in the Lake Chad area. What that means for the doubters is unclear, but video is for them too. Note IS cadres abt.
14/
The whole situation in the area is beyond the scope of this thread, but safe to say that IS Central is very pleased with events & is choosing to trumpet it, but not bothering to show the 10s of large ISWA attacks w/ ghanimah over recent months; (semi)internal politics matter.
15/
A couple of other things; note the rear pickup's up-armouring/repair around the front? That seems to be somewhat of a hallmark of JAS vehicles; we will have to see if the practice continues with ex-JAS units.
16/
And of course...IS had to end the video with the traditional "explosive into the armoured vehicle" move which is a really common trope with serious significance, almost as much as the Mosul-esq "standing on the armoured vehicle". In this case, Vickers Mk3 MBT ate a grenade.
17/
That's about it. Please share etc if you enjoyed this mix of pseudo messaging, internal and weapons analysis- these worlds really do merge together. If you really liked it: ko-fi.com/CalibreObscura.

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More from @CalibreObscura

Aug 10
One aspect that many miss RE:AA FPV UAV is that these are a reaction to a lack of MANPADS, particularly those not from the Cold War.

Sure FPV can work, but if every AFU unit had plenty of LMM or Starstreak, esp. w/ extended range, the need would be met much more efficiently.
The innovation shown in 🇺🇦 is excellent, lessons learned should be diffused into other allied militaries, but we shouldn't fetishize systems that have developed because of specific local conditions. Some of the situation now is because the AFU has not been efficiently resourced.
Ofc, as the drones develop, they will become more and more like MANPADS. The cost will rise, especially as features such as passive radar/ELINT targeting become more common than they already are.

I am not bashing what Ukrainians are doing, I'm just pointing out the reality.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 22
According to some local reports & the ISIS claim, the attackers withdrew successfully. They will have communicated with IS-K/Central, poss. including videos/images of them carrying out the massacre.

They are still at large. This is exactly what security forces don't want.
Usually they don't manage. But if your security forces don't arrive for an hour, this can happen. So they can sleep, rearm, and do it again. Inghimasi don't expect to survive, so for them this is a bonus.
When they kill these guys, they will find a phone with either SMS, WhatsApp, Telegram or maybe Viber msgs to an account with a central asian or Afghan number. That account will have been assisting, directing & encouraging them live. Non-0 chance US SIGINT can see said messages.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 22
Your reminder btw, because I know people will be doing it, deaths of civilians is never, ever to be celebrated. I hope the vermin who carried this out are slotted with all rapidity
From the video: At least 5 men with AKs, probably 74s. Can't see PBIED, although given IS-K to be expected. This is worse case, nightmare scenario stuff that Western forced worry about and train for constantly.

No, not doing any ID, it's not healthy for the mind and soul
Read 5 tweets
Nov 3, 2023
Random thoughts on the al Qassam footage from the IDF ground incursion in no particular order.

Firstly- Clear that the en mass production of the "Yassin" PG-7VR copy was a very sensible decision. This was the most achievable way for them for them to create a potent anti....
armour weapon, with good penetrative capabilities against IDF armour. Even more sensible was the adoption of the main warhead of the Yassin (Essentially the same as a PG-7L) as a static charge IED. That way, the same production line(s) could be efficiently used to boost..
..al Qassam et al anti-armour capabilities in a simple to use package. So far, this seems to have been effective, although the daring IED-placing rambo probably wasted his actions, as the directional charge wouldn't have gone in the right...direction.

Anyway, next.
Read 14 tweets
Oct 25, 2023
I'm going to write a few things here before I go.

This is not *why* I am leaving all of this, but rather just some notes to whoever might find them useful.
Why does someone do the stuff I have? Why does someone write thousands of words and spend so many hours?

It's because yes, you enjoy it, but it makes you feel like you are making a positive difference. But then it starts feeling like a job, a job that gives you no earnings.
Then you find that dozens, if not hundreds, of organisations, companies, large (evidently revenue earning) accounts, YouTubers etc, are very, very happy to use your expertise and your time, and *will not* compensate you for it. Sometimes you get credit, which is nice.
Read 7 tweets
May 8, 2023
Something I didn't say in November that I think now- this stuff has a deeply personal tinge. The Ukrainians are targeting people because they see them as guilty of assisting in their (attempted) genocide. This is Mossad in the 60s, and they are only just starting.
Sensible people in European security circles should be thinking about how to manage and mitigate a service absolutely willing to go kinetic on their soil in five or ten years when some of the Russian men who were Bucha or Mariupol manage to get to Germany etc
So much analysis of this misses the personal factor.

Why wouldn't you target the people who wanted to turn you into a literal footnote of history?
Read 6 tweets

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