Thread by @Ayjchan

This might be the most extensive article written in support of natural origins of Covid-19 that I've seen. I think this was an incredibly well-written piece @factcheckdotorg @jjmcdona with well-rounded quotes from respected experts in the field.
factcheck.org/2021/06/sciche…

@factcheckdotorg @jjmcdona If I can summarize the top 3 points for natural origins, it would be these, according to the article and interviews with experts:

(1) There is no direct evidence of a lab accident or SARS2 having existed in a lab. Instead, we have observed SARS2-like viruses in nature.

(2) An early cluster of Covid-19 in Wuhan was based at a live animal market. The vendors might’ve hidden their illegal animals when they heard there was an outbreak. China has not tested enough animals to find the animal source of the outbreak.

(3) It was about time for a very effective (some might say well adapted) animal pathogen to emerge and cause a pandemic. Wuhan is a major transit hub and a prime candidate for an infectious disease outbreak in China to be first detected.

These top points are worthy of consideration in the search for the origin of Covid-19, but these are the counter arguments.

(1) China is not going to hand over evidence of a lab accident. SARS2-like viruses were being collected from nature and brought to Wuhan prior to Covid-19.

(2) There is no direct evidence of a natural spillover of SARS2 at a live animal market (just as there is no direct evidence of SARS2 leaking from a lab). It is in China's own interests (and within their capabilities) to rapidly identify the source of a local deadly outbreak.

(3) A SARS-related virus breaking out in the one city where there is the largest collection of SARS-related viruses requires investigation.

Some people have already caught on that these arguments are kind of like mirror reflections of each other.

Different people seem to interpret the same lack of evidence as evidence for their origin hypothesis of choice.

One thing I've noticed is that experts in the hard sciences (mathematics, CS, physics) afaik are more likely to think that SARS-CoV-2 has lab origins.

But more experts in the life sciences afaik seem to think that a natural origin is more likely.

Could it be a matter of priors?

I'd like to think that despite the fighting, there is a strong common ground: we have to investigate the #OriginsOfCovid

Right now, what can we do to gather more information?

If you are convinced that you are right, then the gathering of more info is strongly in your interest.

Ultimately, the gathering of more information is in almost everyone's interest.

Whether you live in China, or the US, or any country in the world. It is in your interest to find out how this pandemic got started so we don't have a re-run of this.

I would like to suggest a mindset shift. I know a lot of people right now are very enraged (or maybe it's just twitter) and are drawn into 24/7 fighting with equally enraged people on social media.

Why not put your efforts into gathering information?

We're not even close to done.
This happened. Last week.

https://twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/1407455333115645956

This happened last month.

https://twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/1392579690687250433