To gauge what might happen going forward with the delta variant, @WNYC / @Gothamist asked virologists, immunologists and epidemiologists to break down how the delta variant could affect New Yorkers based on their vaccine status.
gothamist.com/news/why-the-d…
The answer seems pretty straightforward for the unvaccinated, courtesy of @theodora_nyc...
gothamist.com/news/why-the-d…
But just how bad could it be? I asked the folks @PHICORteam to sketch out an outbreak model

Imagine the Bronx had never experienced COVID. Ok, now what happens if you drop 10 people with alpha, delta or the original strain into that unacquainted community gothamist.com/news/why-the-d…
The middle section looks at what to expect if you're "Recovered But Unvaccinated."

Confession: It was basically just an excuse to review a boatload of great immunology research from the past 6-8 months.
For the fully vaccinated, the main takeaway is that the jury is still out on the J&J vaccine, despite what you might hear.

J&J could wind up ok, or boosters might be needed for people with weaker immune systems.

But again, more data are needed. gothamist.com/news/why-the-d…
🎧I hopped on ATC / #NPRConsiderThis to chat about this and why delta is the “variant of the future” come early: wnyc.org/story/why-delt… 🎧

@profshanecrotty coined the expression about a month ago. He is probably wondering about the random "likes" today gothamist.com/news/why-the-d…

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More from @MoNscience

29 Jun
“Half-truths and distorted information have obscured an accurate accounting of the lab's functions and activities, which were more routine than how they’ve been portrayed in the media, she said.” bloomberg.com/news/features/…
“The concrete, bunker-style building has the highest biosafety designation, and requires air, water and waste to be filtered and sterilized before it leaves the facility.” bloomberg.com/news/features/…
“There were strict protocols and requirements aimed at containing the pathogens being studied, Anderson said, and researchers underwent 45 hours of training to be certified to work independently in the lab.” bloomberg.com/news/features/…
Read 8 tweets
17 Jun
Unlike the conversations about masks and variants, this time, the evidence for a lab leak hasn’t changed. Which is to say: there isn’t any yet.

“I think almost everybody agrees that the facts are very thin.” -@mlipsitch

🎯: @MaddieOBender v @motherboard
vice.com/en/article/n7b…
"This is about the bounds of what's worth following up as a possibility, which is different from a standard scientific debate. It's how to interpret the scantiness of the evidence, rather than how to interpret the evidence.” - @mlipsitch vice.com/en/article/n7b…
"The scientists interviewed for this story advocated for further research and investigation into the origins of the coronavirus, including the possibility of a lab leak, but all agreed that there is currently no solid evidence suggesting anything other than a natural spillover.."
Read 4 tweets
8 Jun
Widespread Hunger Persists For Many Families In New York Even As The Economy Recovers

✍️: @clewisreports and our new data reporter @jeffwilen (!!!)

via @WNYC / @Gothamist
gothamist.com/food/widesprea…
About 12% of adults statewide aren’t getting enough to eat from week to week, according to the latest rolling survey from @nys_health. That’s only down slightly from a mid-pandemic peak of approximately 14%. gothamist.com/food/widesprea…
But Black and Hispanic New Yorkers continue to go hungry at dramatically higher rates than their white neighbors. gothamist.com/food/widesprea…
Read 6 tweets
6 Jun
@justinulysses @BeeBrookshire @Anna_Rothschild @amymaxmen The most vocal proponents of lab leak consistently posit lab manipulation of some variety.

Why?

Because as far as we know Shi Zheng-Li’s lab at the Wuhan Institute of Virology collected bat samples from 2010-2015...
@justinulysses @BeeBrookshire @Anna_Rothschild @amymaxmen If those field teams had caught SARS-CoV-2 back then, it should have sparked outbreaks years ago.

Ok, so what’s left?

The WIV team safely brought SARS2 (or a close relative) back to their lab between 2010-2015 but then was experimenting with it in 2019. This is a long shot...
@justinulysses @BeeBrookshire @Anna_Rothschild @amymaxmen ...and it’s speculation.

Alternatively, the lab had continued field surveys into 2019 without telling anyone (speculation bordering on conspiracy theory)...
Read 4 tweets
5 Jun
@MMKavanagh That’s why that paragraph in @KatherineEban’s VF story is so misleading:

BSL-3 labs are specifically designed to study respiratory pathogens like SARS-CoV-2. cdc.gov/training/quick… Image
@MMKavanagh @KatherineEban People study anthrax in BSL-3 labs. Anthrax! ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK53535…

Plus BSL-4 labs are built upon the principles of BSL-3. Image
@MMKavanagh @KatherineEban While BSL-4 labs are recognized for their pressurized suits and vacuumed-sealed double doors, BSL-3 labs also take extra precautions with ventilation...because again, BSL-3 labs are meant for respiratory pathogens. cdc.gov/labs/pdf/SF__1… ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
4 Jun
Fauci’s reply in the first email listed among BuzzFeed’s 3,200-pg FOIA is my mental response to just so many emails...
+1 on @DrJAshton. Great medical reporter.
Backstory: Fauci receives a boatload of reports to read every day. His staff helps to separate the wheat from the chaff.
Read 5 tweets

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