All the election scholars I know expect the Democrats to lose in the Brnovich voting case tomorrow. The bigger question is HOW the Supreme Court writes its decision and if Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act continues to protect minority voters from restrictive voting rules. 1/2
I've written about best-case scenario of a fractured court (or even an alliance among the Court's more liberal members and at least 2 of Barrett-Roberts-Kavanaugh); but it's tough to count on Roberts or Kavanaugh in this context (Barrett more unknown) 2/2 electionlawblog.org/?p=122703
My first post said in the Brnovich case "tomorrow," but tomorrow is not the last day of SCOTUS opinions and the opinion could come later in the week.
In advance of a possible Supreme Court ruling today in Brnovich voting rights case, here's my Feb. @SCOTUSblog post on the case, about how voting rights plaintiffs are caught in a battle not of their choosing between the Democratic and Republican parties scotusblog.com/2021/02/a-part…
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Tomorrow morning (at 7 am PT) the Supreme Court is expected to issue opinions in its two remaining cases: Brnovich on voting rights and AFP v. Bonta on donor disclosure.
Here's what at stake and what I'll be looking for:
/1
In Brnovich, the Democratic National Committee and others sued over two Arizona voting rules: one that doesn't count votes cast by a voter in the wrong precinct and one that prevents third party collection of absentee ballots (so-called "ballot harvesting"). /2
Democrats in Brnovich claim these rules violate Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which provides that minority voters must have the same opportunity as other voters to participate in the political process and to elect representatives of their choice. /3
say goodbye to the old #ELB website, with its blogger-dot-com, myspace, geocities vibe.
Gone in the next hour, to be replaced by something I hope you will love! electionlawblog.org
(Site will be down for a few hours during transition; happening early because SCOTUS is late)
#ELB: The Buried Lede in Jon Karl’s Flattering Bill Barr Story: Mitch McConnell Was Willing to Risk American Democracy to Save the Senate electionlawblog.org/?p=122869
Lots of people are buzzing today about Jon Karl’s piece in the Atlantic in which Bill Barr portrays himself in standing up to Trump and his claims of election fraud. As is typical in pieces where people from Barr world are sources, this paints Barr in the best possible light.
The piece does not even mention how Barr put forward outrageous and ludicrous statements about voter fraud before the election, suggesting that foreign governments would be mailing in thousands of absentee ballots. Barr continues on his rehabilitation tour.
ELB survey results: readers are happy with the mix of news and commentary; want to see more coverage of the voting wars, redistricting, and campaign finance; and want more diversity of opinions and authorship.
So the Supreme Court as it comes to the end of the term has been issuing opinions Mondays and Thursdays. Next week they've moved to Monday-Wed-Friday. That could mean the final opinions come 6/25. But they could still spill over to the week of 6/28. 15 opinions to go!
15 opinion releases over 3 days is 5 per day, which is a LOT, especially in one. Some are more technical and small so it is possible. But 6/29 or even 6/28 and 6/29 seems possible for final SCOTUS opinions of the term.
The big cases I'm watching are about voting rights (Brnovich) and (indirectly) campaign finance disclosure (AFP v. Bonta).