Thread by @tomiahonen

My Take on Weisselberg Day Thread 1/

Thursday was Weisselberg Day as Trump's accountant and his company CFO surrendered, was indicted on 15 counts of criminal financial frauds including tax evasion.

This thread summarizes what I learned incl great discussions with my Tweeps

Tomi's Take on Weisselberg Day 2/

We learned Weisselberg has been indicted on 15 counts. He is due $1 million dollars in unpaid taxes and could get 5 years. He is charged with Grand Larceny on systematically falsifying tax documents over 16 years which could add 7 years.

Tomi's Take on Weisselberg 3/

Weisselberg arrived at 6:15 AM voluntarily to surrender. He was cuffed. He entered plea of not guilty to all 15 charges. He was considered a flight risk. He surrendered his passport. He was released without bail because these are non-violent crimes.

Tomi's Take on Weisselberg 4/

My MBA mind took on the $1M in unpaid taxes

Trump has of couse done this with everybody
Quick count: Ivanka, Don Jr, Eric, Jared, Melania; Weisselberg, Calamari, McConney, Michael Cohen, Hope Hicks = $10 million probably

And Trump himself? $20M

Tomi's Take on Weisselberg 5/

On prison time. Every Trump family member or employee faces similar sentence as Allen's 5 years (tax fraud, not larceny). But are YOUNGER so did it not as long. Their prison sentences mostly 3 year range

With larcony, maybe 2 years each = 5 years

Tomi's Take on Weisselberg 6/

So on prison time, VERY rough estimate exposure:

Weisselberg 12+ years

Family Ivanka Don Jr Eric Melania Jared 5+ years

Employees Calamari McConney* Michael Cohen** Hope Hicks 5+ years

Trump himself 12+ years

* limited immunity
** full immunity

Tomi's Take on Weisselberg 7/

If we consider Weisselberg, this INITIAL 15 count indictment shows Allen near certain prison time of more than 12 years and back taxes of $1 million

I am CERTAIN the Manhattan DA will INCREASE the count of indictments if Allen doesn't take the deal

Tomi's Take on Weisselberg 8/

The NEXT targets - remember this Special Grand Jury sits for 6 months. It took them one month to get Weisselberg indicted - are likely Don Jr, Ivanka or Eric. Could be Calamari. We will get the next indictment maybe in another month to 6 weeks.

Tomi's Take on Weisselberg 9/

The NEXT TARGETS will see what Allen Weisselberg was charged. They can count. They will be told, you look at 5 years in a New York state prison, plus you have to pay $1 million in back taxes

One of Trump kids will flip to take the best deal.

Tomi's Take on Weisselberg 10/

Remember, Michael Cohen took deal that gave him 3 years, which he served (got out after 2). These deals only get worse, if one is not fast to take first deal (And remember, Calamari is in the mix to flip)

Tomi's Take on Weisselberg 11/

Now Donald Trump. This is a Mafia trial. The boss is ALWAYS prosecuted LAST. But we know NOW, that on Manhattan DA case against Donald Trump the person, Trump faces at least 12 years of prison time and by my guess, $20 million in back taxes

Tomi's Take on Weisselberg 12/

In reality, by the time Trump is tried at Manhattan court, the list will be FAR MORE than 15 indictments. He is LAST to be tried, he cannot 'flip' on anyone to reduce his time. Trump will get AT LEAST 12 years prison & $20 million in back taxes

Tomi's Take on Weisselberg 13/

REMEMBER, Trump & Weisselberg committed OTHER financial crimes with MUCH MORE prison time.

Trump without Weisselberg, as President committed OTHER crimes with Giuliani, Roger Stone, Bill Barr etc. They add MUCH MUCH MORE prison time

Tomi's Take on Weisselberg 14/

Back to Weisselberg. His count number 12, Grand Larceny - will probably destroy the Trump Organization. Because of how Trump business is built - essentially a loan pyramid scheme - if any one of Trump lenders calls in their loans, Trump collapses

Tomi's Take on Weisselberg 15/

Now that Trump's Chief Financial Officer has been charged with Grand Larceny, falsifying official financial documents - every lender wants their money back. And their LOAN DOCUMENTS allow for this

They would be NEGLIGENT if they did not do that

Tomi's Take on Weisselberg 16/

It is LIKELY that Trump is shortly forced into a fire sale of his properties, as his lenders all demand Trump loans to be instantly repaid. This could push Trump into personal bankruptcy. When? Too early to tell, but possibly before Christmas

Tomi's Take on Weisselberg 17/

Then on the evidence. Manhattan DA has Trump PERSONAL signed checks. Trump ran a crooked double accounting system. DA has the Excel spreadsheets that contain this info

This case is done. Closed. Weisselberg is toast
Donald Trump is burnt toast

Tomi's Take on Weisselberg 18/

The "unindicted co-conspirator" is probably Jeff McConney, the number 2 bookkeeper, Allen Weisselberg's assistant

It means Manhattan DA does not NEED Allen. They WANT him to filp. They do not NEED him to flip

Trump will go to prison for 12 years

Tomi's Take on Weisselberg 19/

NOW we wait for the next steps. When will Allen Weisselberg flip?

Who is the next to be indicted? Don Jr, Ivanka, Eric or Calamari

When will the first Trump child flip?

I will keep you posted :-)