Republicans claim they are bullish on winning back Nevada because Clark County is "trending right."
Okay, let's look at the actual numbers here. Is that really true?
What the numbers actually say is a lot more complicated. From 2000 to 2020, we see a steady trend *up* in Democrats' topline each cycle. Republicans' topline, meanwhile, has bounced around all over the place and if anything has gone down very slightly.
So why, then, are people claiming Clark County is trending right? Because they're starting the clock at 2008. Obama massively overperformed in Clark in 2008 and 2012, then there was a reversion to the mean in 2016 and 2020.
No, he wasn't. Thanos was just recycling the same Malthusian crap that's been used by hundreds of years of politicians to justify forced sterilizations in America, famines in British India, and China's one-child policy.
Malthus has been proven wrong time and time again.
First of all, when societies face scarcity, families have *more* children because they need more capital to get the same resources. Fertility rates are negatively correlated with a country's level of development.
And second of all, the scarcities that cause these population pressures are a direct result of governments taking away people's power to act in their own interests.
If you look through history, you see a startling fact: famines do not occur in democracies. Ever.
There is a whole class of Twitter trolls who direct swarms against anyone who criticizes Ron DeSantis. Fried is obviously a top target, but they also go after small-time commenters. It's eerily cult-like and doesn't seem organic.
Manchin has to know the JLVRA isn't getting through the Senate either. Among the GOP, only Murkowski backs it, and if we add gerrymandering to it, even she might back out.
What does he do when his pet voting rights project fails and the *only* option is ignoring the filibuster?
I don't think Manchin really has a long game anymore — I think he genuinely believed he could make the Senate work with no rule changes, and he's backed himself into a corner as it's become obvious he can't.
What's frustrating is it was totally unnecessary for him to do this. Other filibuster-supportive Dems like Tester & Feinstein left open the possibility they'd change their mind if the GOP operated in bad faith. It would've been so easy for Manchin to say that too, but he didn't.
And it's objectively false that Obama did not build a party bench. His VP is now president. His Labor Secretary went on to chair the party during a blue wave. Several of his administration officials, like Haley Stevens and Colin Allred, were elected to Congress winning red seats.
Obama took the reins of the Democratic Party at a very hard time, when rural Dem areas were in the middle of realignment but suburban GOP areas hadn't yet begun theirs. The party fundraisers were stretched thin trying to prevent losses that were basically inevitable.
Hey @JoeManchinWV — the GOP just blocked investigating an attack of their own workplace, even after Dems agreed to everything they demanded.
If you think the filibuster will let you pass the PRO Act, the John Lewis Act, or anything else you endorsed, you're kidding yourself.
I understand your position, @JoeManchinWV. I know Robert Byrd was your friend and mentor and taught you reverence for the Senate rules. I know it's hard to be in the middle of a 50-50 Senate representing a very red state.
But democracy is at stake. You gotta get over it.
The modern filibuster has *never* been the norm. It was used sparingly until the 2010s when the GOP became radicalized.
Remember how they forced Dems to drag an ailing Robert Byrd from his hospital bed for votes? He cried "shame!" He knew the GOP was breaking his beloved Senate.