Republicans claim they are bullish on winning back Nevada because Clark County is "trending right."
Okay, let's look at the actual numbers here. Is that really true?
Okay, let's look at the actual numbers here. Is that really true?
What the numbers actually say is a lot more complicated. From 2000 to 2020, we see a steady trend *up* in Democrats' topline each cycle. Republicans' topline, meanwhile, has bounced around all over the place and if anything has gone down very slightly.
So why, then, are people claiming Clark County is trending right? Because they're starting the clock at 2008. Obama massively overperformed in Clark in 2008 and 2012, then there was a reversion to the mean in 2016 and 2020.
That's not a "trend." That's a cherry-pick.
That's not a "trend." That's a cherry-pick.
Republicans did improve their margin in Clark in 2020 relative to 2016 — but that's only because the third party share dropped. It was GOP-leaning independents who didn't vote Trump the first time coming home.
In fact, the GOP topline in Clark was still lower in 2020 than 2000!
In fact, the GOP topline in Clark was still lower in 2020 than 2000!
And there are other warning signs for the GOP in Clark that suggest they have little overall room to grow.
For instance, both parties are losing registrations in Clark, but the GOP is losing them faster and will soon be in 3rd behind independents. nvsos.gov/sos/elections/…
For instance, both parties are losing registrations in Clark, but the GOP is losing them faster and will soon be in 3rd behind independents. nvsos.gov/sos/elections/…
Nevada is a close state and LV is only a pale blue metro, so the state is by no means out of play for Republicans. But to claim Clark is "trending right" the way that, say, Lorain or Trumbull is in Ohio is pure wishcasting.
If anything, the data suggest a very slight trend left.
If anything, the data suggest a very slight trend left.
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