The left likes to describe the right as being "anti science". But what I have noticed is that in many/most cases, when they say "anti science", what they really mean is "anti authority". (thread).
It doesn't matter how decorated & qualified a scientist is; how well qualified they are to comment; and how compelling the substantive scientific arguments made are, if the conclusions go against the proclamations of a authoritative body, they will be deemed "anti science".
Where the left has a point is that in many cases, the consensus is right, and the fringe views of dissenting thinkers might be consistent with a less rigorous process; dubious incentives; or outright conspiracy mongering. However...
Where the left is often wrong is they overlook that institutional/authoritative bodies often have misaligned incentives and are prone to politicization and corruption. Appointments are often political, & the orgs are run by ppl that politiked their way into leadership positions.
In addition, institutions are captured by their employees and usually run for their own benefit- job and benefit perpetuation/inflation. Proclamations are therefore usually driven first and foremost by what is considered politically acceptable and less likely to be controversial.
Consequently, the proclamations of authoritative bodies are - much more often than most people realize - susceptible to bias/politicization and are often wrong.

Conflating "science" with "authority" is therefore a dangerous & damaging tendency, and it's creating many problems.
That does not mean that any dissenting view is substantive. Much is quackery. But their ought to be a healthy degree of skepticism about authoritative proclamations, and a willingness to listen to contrary arguments from credible dissidents with relevant qualifications/expertise.
Too seldom is that allowed to happen. The world is dangerously quick to condemn such people are peddlers of misinformation for violating authoritative consensus, and put them in the same category as quacks no matter how illustrious their track record & cogency of their arguments.
This is a trend I have warned about many times in the past - i.e. that the effort to suppress "misinformation" would lead to contrary voices being silenced, no matter how informed, because people would always default to authoritative proclamations as the determinate of truth.
Without a check on institutionalized corruption/politicization/bias from free thinkers, our society will continue to drift into ever more extreme ideological bubbles decoupled from empirical evidence, w increasingly poor decision making & negative consequences for human welfare.

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More from @LT3000Lyall

3 Jul
I've spent some time researching covid mRNA vaccines of late, trying to parse a lot of the conflicting information we are receiving. My conclusions are as follows. Disclosure - I've been pro vaccine my entire life and never been part of the "anti vax" movement, nor am I atm.
Firstly - efficacy - the mRNA vaccines work. I'm convinced that if everyone in the world took them, the pandemic would very likely be end & covid would struggle to survive, including new variants given the very small level of DNA-level evolution (0.3%) in new variants.
For this reason, and given that everyone has an obvious interest in ending the pandemic, there is therefore very strong institutional support for getting everyone vaccinated as soon as possible.
Read 18 tweets
26 May
I'm so tired of reading references to an oil "price war" between Russia and Saudi Arabia. There has never been any such price war. What there actually was was simply a disagreement amongst OPEC+ as to best strategy for dealing with global oversupply (continued).
Saudi Arabia believed OPEC+ should cut production to reduce global oversupply. Russia believed this would merely encourage more shale production and would thus be futile long term, and believed high-cost marginal US shale producers needed to bear the burden of supply adjustment.
This disagreement has been ongoing for several years, and continued early into the pandemic. However, after it became apparent how severe the near term demand impact would be from covid-19, Russia acknowledged a need for output reductions given the extraordinary circumstances.
Read 6 tweets
7 May
Afterpay & its cheerleaders love to highlight that BNPL increases merchant sales.

The reality is that whenever consumers increase their aggregate debt levels, whether by CC, BNPL, or other means, merchant sales increase. But consumers' leveraging up is not a sustainable boost. Image
If you give someone access to $500 in credit they didn't previously have, and they go and spend it, their spending will of course increase by $500 in the short term. However, they have to pay the $500 back, so it will reduce their future consumption. It simply pulls sales forward
The only other way in which it can boosts merchant sales is if they take market share off other merchants that don't offer APT. This cannibalistic benefit will only last as long as BNPL is not widely available. 100s of coys now offer BNPL services and that point won't take long.
Read 9 tweets
6 May
There are two aspects to investing: return and risk.

After a long bull market investors tend to forget about risk & focus only on return. This one a key reason why value investing tends to go out of favour, because value investing places a lot of emphasis on risk reduction.
An emphasis on a margin of safety, scrupulously avoiding overpayment, and being humble/realistic about the degree to which you can foresee the future, seems unduly conservative during boom times.
However, when the shit eventually hits the fan, which given enough time it always does, certain stocks & investors loaded up in them can see losses of 50-90%, and investors are reminded about the importance of risk. Value investing tends to then come back in vogue.
Read 8 tweets
6 May
Great research on NEA.

This is why for most companies, profits are important. Profits validate the narrative management is spinning - they prove the coy has a product customers are willing to pay for in a competitive marketplace, that is priced above the cost of provisioning it.
Anyone can grow a company by throwing money around and signing on customers at a loss, hoping to upsell them later. It's called buying market share. It's as old as capitalism. Only in rare situations is profitless growth a sign anything of genuine value is being created/exists.
If you're willing to lose more money than your competitors, you will grow/take share. But it's not a sustainable competitive advantage to have price < cost. It's a fake competitive advantage that leads to fake/false price signals in the marketplace.
Read 4 tweets
6 May
Afterpay traded sub $100 today, almost 40% off its highs. The APT gif brigade seems to have vanished.

Valuation still in loon down. While label solutions offered by merchants will crush margins long term. ADS is one company offering this functionality to merchants (long ADS).
"I'd like to pay with APT"

"Did you know our membership card can offer you the same BNPL terms, but you get free points you can redeem for 1% off your next purchase".

"Ok cool that works too".

BNPL is just rebranded POS consumer finance. Will be rapidly commoditized.
Merchants have every incentive to switch to offering white labeled solutions. They save on 4-7% merchant fee charged by APT; control the data collection on their customers; and share in the financing economics. They will still offer external BNPL but steer customers off it.
Read 4 tweets

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