Half of 2021 is over and market is showing some distinct patterns. Let's dissect the trends.
1/11

Thread🧵
multipie.co/blog/2021/07/0…
2/11

YTD (Jan-Jun):
📊Index: 17%; Overall market returns: 20%
📈Industrials, Power &Commodities best performers - old school capex heavy sectors
↔️ Asset light & new age has underperformed
🕺The rally has shifted to small & micro caps (YTD returns of 38% vs 17% for large caps)
3/11

Cash volumes have dried out on NSE in the last few weeks, indicating some tiredness in the rally:
4/11
Enough jokes have been made lately on Value investing.

@ckaiwu's memo explains that value investing has been underperforming due to sole focus on tangible assets and failure to incorporate intangible assets in Intrinsic Value.

We share 10 takeaways:
multipie.co/blog/2021/07/0…
5/11

P/E and P/B only measure tangible aspects: Book value and accounting earnings fail to account for intangibles.

They rely on backward looking measures and mostly ignore the future value of intangible investments such as patents and R&D.
6/11
Key takeaways from RBI's FSR:
✍️NPA stress is lesser than anticipated
✍️Worst case scenario now (GNPA of 11.2%) is better than Best case (GNPA of 12.5%) an year back
✍️RBI has managed the yield curve via GSAP & OMOs- low MTM impact for Banks
✍️High Covid Insurance settlement
7/11

Discussions around green and clean energy are increasing globally. But that doesn't mean Thermal power is fading out soon.

Mr. Aswath Ram, MD of Cummins India shared relevant insights in Q4 call on why renewables will take time to scale and why Green Hydrogen matters:
8/11
Jefferies India Long-Only Portfolio:

💹Created by Christopher Wood (Global head of equity strategy) and Mahesh (India Head of Research)
💹 16 stocks (Financials: 40%; Energy: 20%; RE: 17%)
💹 Preference for ICICI group over HDFC & Kotak
💹 Bullish on Housing and RE recovery
9/11

Travel is back in US with a bang. With almost half the population fully vaccinated, US saw highest air traffic in two years on June 24th: 47,000 flights/24hr period
Cab rentals are 140% of 2019 levels.
10/11
Quote of the week: Investment returns versus investor returns.
We share weekly newsletter digest (#MultipieWeekly) and new podcast update to mail subscribers.

If you found this useful, please subscribe at multipie.co.

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More from @MultipieSocial

24 Jun
We studied RIL's annual report ahead of the much anticipated AGM. A thread🧵on Reliance Industries
#RILAGM
1/n
2/n
Key investment focus areas:

⚡️De-carbonization (convert CO2 to chemicals); new energy
📲 Digital commerce
🛒Omni-channel retail
🍥FTTH broadband

Interesting mentions:
♻️Convert organic waste > renewable crude > transportation fuel
🧪High-value proteins and nutraceuticals
3/n
Capex in the last decade:

👊RIL invested US$133bn (~9.4 Lk cr) equally between retail/digital and energy verticals

💰2/3rd funded via internal cashflows; 1/3rd via debt/ creditor funding and asset monetisation/capital raise

Details:
Read 9 tweets
12 Jun
1/n
A classic economic model of the world assumes demand and supply as the two parameters that determine pricing. Well, here we talk about the third leg that is causing havoc in global trade - logistics, specifically shipping containers.

A thread 🧵explaining the crisis.
2/n
Remember that big ship ‘Ever Given’ getting stuck in the Suez Canal? If that wasn’t enough for the shipping industry, we are now seeing a major global container shortage. This has led to a massive surge in shipping rates across the world.

Let's understand in more details.
3/n
Why are containers important?

Quoting Najib Shah, ex-Chairman, CBIC, “If exports are the lifeline of an economy, shipping containers are the lifeline of exports”. There are ~1.7 cr of these 20 / 40 feet boxes circulating globally, accounting for 85% of international trade!
Read 14 tweets
5 Jun
1/n
Thread🧵on 🔥 stocks for the week ended Jun 4, 2021.

Category A: Highest returns

1. Large cap stocks (market cap > ₹ 20,000) that generated minimum 6% returns last week:
2/n

Mid cap stocks (market cap ₹ 5,000-20,000 crores) that generated minimum 7% returns last week:
3/n

Small cap stocks (market cap ₹ 1,000-5,000 crores) that generated minimum 10% returns last week:
Read 6 tweets
4 Jun
#RBIPolicy
RBI's monetary policy committee (MPC) outcome is to be announced today at 10 am.

We thought of writing an explainer thread🧵on key RBI Monetary policy tools & their implications. This should help you understand the policy better.

Please RT to educate more folks.
1/n Image
What is Monetary policy?

Monetary policy is the use of instruments under the control of the central bank to regulate:
✅Supply, cost and use of money & credit

With end objective of controlling:
✅Inflation, Liquidity, Balances, Exchange rate and overall financial stability

2/n
What are the tools used by RBI?

RBI (or any Central Bank) has various tools at its disposal to achieve its above-mentioned objectives. We have noted these tools in the left half of image below 👇

3/n Image
Read 18 tweets
30 May
📢Update:
All episodes of our podcast🎙️series 'Breaking Investment Stereotypes' with @singhalrajk are now available on our Youtube channel!

Podcast with Saurabh Mukherjea (CIO, Marcellus) here:

Please subscribe🔔for alerts.

Short🧵on episodes 👇
1/n
Ep. 8
Guest: @Lakshmi1876 (Debt CIO, Kotak AMC)

✍️State of Fixed Income securities in India
✍️India versus US fixed income
✍️Understand global macro & RBI response
✍️Credit risk fund and Global debt funds
✍️Asset allocation and risk management

Link:
2/n
Ep. 7
Guest: Alok Jain (Founder, @WeekendInvestng)

✍️Origins of weekendinvesting.com
✍️Experiment with various styles
✍️Exit principle on positions
✍️Psychology and investing
✍️Managing drawdowns
✍️On journaling trades and investments

Link:
3/n
Read 10 tweets
24 May
Hello folks!

Take a work break and check out what we found interesting - snippets, reading and video links from last week.

Sharing curated #MultipieWeekly🌱(#3) for you
1/12
1. Banking result season for Q4 has come to a close, so we compared "Total net addition of stressed loans" across Tier I Banks in FY21.

Do you see a surprise?
Data source: Ambit research
2/12
2. We found this table on valuation of agro-chemical players worth highlighting.

At 43x P/E, the mean valuation of the pack is higher than historical averages and inching towards FMCG valuations. Is there Margin of Safety?

Note: EV = MCap + Net Debt (Debt - Cash)

3/12
Read 13 tweets

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