braddelong.substack.com/p/document-fra…

DOCUMENT: Franklin Delano Roosevelt: “Four Freedoms” State-of-the-Union Address to Congress (1941)

Delivered January 6, 1941

In the future days, which we seek to make secure, we look forward to a world founded upon four essential human freedoms... 1/
...The first is freedom of speech and expression—everywhere in the world.

The second is freedom of every person to worship God in his own way—everywhere in the world.

The third is freedom from want—which, translated into world terms, means economic understandings which... 2/
...will secure to every nation a healthy peacetime life for its inhabitants-everywhere in the world.

The fourth is freedom from fear—which, translated into world terms, means a world-wide reduction of armaments to such a point and in such a thorough fashion that no nation... 3/
...will be in a position to commit an act of physical aggression against any neighbor—anywhere in the world. 4/END

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More from @delong

2 Jul
braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-note…

Things that went whizzing by that I want to remember: Is there any reason not to take this as a reasonable, non-stupid, rational, calm take on the issue?

Lindsay Beyerstein: Covid: Why a Natural Origin Story Is More Likely: ‘It took 15 years to... 1/
...trace SARS definitively to bats.... Even if you’re doing the most sophisticated gain-of-function research you could possibly be doing, you have to start with a virus that’s at least close.... As far as anybody knows, the closest strain the WIV had is a bat virus called... 2/
...RaTG13 that’s 96 percent similar to Covid–19, but the gulf between 96 percent and >99 percent is vast.... If RaTG13 were used as a backbone for Covid–19, Rasmussen told me, you’d expect to see big chunks of exact similarity with coherent chunks of new information added... 3/
Read 5 tweets
1 Jul
braddelong.substack.com/p/podcast-hexa…

PODCAST: "Hexapodia" Is þe Key Insight XX: Five-Item Grab-Bag: Vaccination & Votes; NIMBYism & California Growth, Aversion to UI, Google’s Quality, & Wilhelmine Germany & Contemporary China... 1/

Noah Smith & Brad DeLong's 30:00 < [Length of Weekly
... Podcast] < 60:00

Zach Carter, who was supposed to be our guest this week, has a cold. So we have a grab-bag: vaccination & votes, NIMBYism & California growth, aversion to continuing UI, Google’s quality as a search engine, & Wilhelmine Germany & Contemporary China... 2/
...Key Insights: 1. Red states will see a lot of COVID-hurt this summer fall and winter for… reasons we still find incomprehensible… 2. NIMBYism has not killed California growth because monkey-smarts are becoming, relatively, less important as a factor of production… 3/
Read 11 tweets
1 Jul
braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-note…

First: All I am asking is þt people remember þt þeir model & forecast are a model & a forecast—þt neiþer are “reality”. In þe public discussion, þe right line is: The risks are much greater on þe downside þan þe upside. FULL STOP. More opens... 1/
...þe door for bad actors to confuse people <>

&:

Cecilia Rouse & al.: Distinguishing Between Signal & Noise in Recent Jobs Data: ‘The onset of the COVID–19 pandemic resulted in historically large job losses, and its retreat this spring has... 2/
...allowed millions of Americans to return to work. On average since January 2021, the U.S. has added about 500,000 new jobs per month. However, job growth has also been noticeably volatile month-to-month since January. This volatility in job growth during the pandemic... 3/
Read 9 tweets
30 Jun
braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-note…

Cecilia Rouse & al.: Distinguishing Between Signal & Noise in Recent Jobs Data: ‘The onset of the COVID–19 pandemic resulted in historically large job losses, and its retreat this spring has allowed millions of Americans to return to work. On... 1/
...average since January 2021, the U.S. has added about 500,000 new jobs per month. However, job growth has also been noticeably volatile month-to-month since January. This volatility in job growth during the pandemic reflects both real volatility—economic reverberations... 2/
...of the pandemic shock—as well as heightened measurement error due to the challenge of collecting statistical data amidst a pandemic. These considerations warn against placing too much weight on any single data point in assessing the current state of the economy, even... 3/
Read 4 tweets
30 Jun
prosyn.org/RVAv38R?referr…

There is a disturbingly strong historical analogy to the Republican Party’s transformation into a cult of personality: the Communist Party of China under Mao Zedong. At the CPC’s Lu Mountain Plenary Meeting in 1958, Marshall Peng Dehuai pointed out... 1/
...that Mao’s judgment was flawed, and that he could no longer be trusted as primus inter pares. The only question was whether the other party grandees could move ahead without Mao’s charismatic link to the party’s gullible base... 2/
...But Mao struck first. While party officials like Peng Zhen, Luo Ruiqing, Lu Dingyi, Yang Shangkun, and Deng Xiaoping were purged, Peng and Liu Shaoqi both turned up dead, and the rest of the grandees got with the program. That program was the total chaos of the Cultural... 3/
Read 8 tweets
29 Jun
braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-note…

Briefly Noted: For 2021-06-28 Mo
Things that went whizzing by that I want to remember: First: A Platonic Dialogue: Polemarkhos: Look at this! Is this still true?... 1/
...Glaukon: Yes it is…

Nikeratos: The grifters and the grifted—both are, to me, astonishing to watch.

Thrasymakhos: How so?

Nikeratos: On the one hand, the grifters say: Trump deserves 100% credit for warp speed, and Biden and the press are showing how despicable they... 2/ Image
...are by not praising him every day. And the grifted buy it.

Polemarkhos: And on the other hand, actually getting a vaccine and so not being willing to fight the virus with your bare hands alone—that demonstrates that you are some kind of a… near-eunuch… what is the... 3/
Read 14 tweets

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