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Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
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4 Jul, 4 tweets, 1 min read
I fear the Government will stop publishing daily coronavirus updates to coincide with the 19 July Lick-Every-Doorknob grand reopening.

Because then there's near zero oversight or accountability. Just whatever prechewed platitudes they dish out at periodic press conferences.
And if they do give up providing data, that's the end of any sort of press analysis too. Sure, a handful of outlets may try and assemble a picture of what's going on from disparate data sources - but the vast majority won't bother because that's work and Love Island is on.
And yet, our situation has possibly never been more precarious...
And it's not just cases...

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More from @uk_domain_names

Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
3 Jul
"Labour has announced a new post-Brexit economic vision for the UK involving ambitious plans to 'make, sell and buy more in Britain' as it seeks to build a strongly patriotic policy platform with which to take on the Tories."

A flag-shagging duel. So sad. theguardian.com/politics/2021/…
So we've basically got Tory vs Tory Lite, both fighting over the 52% that were 37% of the overall electorate.

Nothing whatsoever for anyone else.
In the face of this arrant nonsense, the LibDems and Greens should figure out what compromises each of them would need to make to merge and carry forward the cream of their policy platforms.

(Even if those compromises were significant, it could still be a promising exercise.)
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
3 Jul
The narrative coming from Government has been that the 17 May reopening in England had a very minor impact on cases.

Let's take a look. Hmm, no, it's impossible to spot any trends...
But why are we fussing about cases when politicians keep telling us that the link between cases and hospitalisations has been broken?

Does this look broken to you? If so, Specsavers may be calling...
What about deaths?

Mercifully, they've stayed low so far (though they're creeping up). The vaccine is clearly helping a lot.

But look again at the hospitalisations graph.

Notice how it doubled in a week? That doubling won't have worked its way through to deaths yet.
Read 5 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
29 Jun
Woke up with a wild idea running through my head: why don't we rejoin the EU?!

Could be nuts, could be a lightbulb moment. Might at least be worth considering.

After all, as EU members, we could expect to enjoy...

1. Unfettered access to the largest trading bloc in the world.
2. No customs formalities, border checks or red tape.

No more food confiscated. No more lorry parks & queues of trucks.

Just free-flowing borders instead, supporting the just-in-time manufacturing that underpins millions of jobs in our automotive, aerospace and other sectors.
3. Free trade deals with over 80 countries around the world, plus the opportunity to shape future deals to our benefit by combining our negotiating experience with the rest of the EU's. (Our draft trade deal with Australia might help accelerate the EU's own efforts.)
Read 36 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
28 Jun
Even the Sun is waking up to reality. (Daily Mail had its own moment of realisation a few days back.)

Brexit combined with the pandemic to create the perfect toxic stew. Consequence: empty shelves. Why? Because foreign drivers won't come to our unfriendly plague island any more.
There are different degrees of shortages.

Will we literally run out of food? Unlikely, given the Government can step in (e.g. by paying a hefty "danger money" bonus for drivers to come here).

But we could easily see a situation where you never know what will be in stock or not.
In other words, it could readily turn shopping into a lottery. And if you depend on particular products or product ranges, that means you could be bang out of luck.

But if all you're looking for is "adequate food" (cf Dominic Raab) you'll probably find *something* to eat.
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
27 Jun
Tens of thousands of people died in early 2021 because politicians screamed "we can't lock down forever" in late 2020 while ignoring the fact the vaccine was ALREADY being rolled out so it was never going to be "forever".

A few more sensible months would have changed everything.
We're seeing the same idiotic non-argument being deployed by people pushing to preserve the 19 July "everything reopens" date no matter what.

"Are we supposed to lock down forever?" No, of course not.

We're vaccinating hundreds of thousands a day. And the population is finite.
That means we're guaranteed to get to a point where everyone who wants the vaccine has received both doses.

It's not going to take years and years.

But it will take longer than 19 July.

October looks much more realistic. And that's hardly "forever".
Read 5 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
27 Jun
There is a notion going around that the link between cases, hospitalisations and deaths has been broken by the vaccine.

The vaccine has helped. For sure. But people are still being hospitalised in rising numbers. They are also dying in rising numbers.

Weakened, yes. Broken, no.
Cases may be rising faster than hospitalisations, and hospitalisations may be rising faster than deaths but that doesn't take away from the fact that ALL THREE are currently rising.

Therefore...
More cases = more hospitalisations = more deaths.

It is vital to drive cases lower.
How do we do that?

Well, clearly not by using the vaccine as our only weapon.

If the vaccine were sufficient, we'd be seeing case numbers steady or falling. But we're not. They're going up, fast.

So we need to take extra measures until the vaccination programme catches up.
Read 7 tweets

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