The difficulty with this vein of commentary by @jamesrwebber is it boils down to “the govt forced through an unsustainable Brexit deal, fracturing the UK, without NI majority consent, & lied. But we should now pretend the inevitable consequences … aren’t, … because”. /1.
The NI Protocol isn’t the problem, although it’s certainly problematic. The NIP’s a (necessary), temporary compromise. It’s a sticking plaster over the gaping wound consciously created by @BorisJohnson & @DavidGHFrost with their legally binding, ‘oven ready Brexit deal’, …/2.
… the purpose of which was to get the keys to Downing Street, regardless of entirely foreseeable & foreseen consequences. There’s no sustainable outcome which doesn’t involve UK membership of the single market & customs union, or substantially identical arrangements. /3.
An SPS agreement (an oven-ready one’s available) would be a great start.

All this is entirely within the UK govt’s power. No one in the EU or US is going to stand in their way. It can be done immediately.

Pretending otherwise is all a bit pathetic. And highly dangerous. /4. End

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More from @AndrewPRLevi

2 Jul
Brexit & Ireland/NI: a very short 🧵

The ⁦@IrishTimes⁩ article by ⁦@DavidGHFrost⁩ & ⁦@BrandonLewis⁩, just published, contains an embarrassment of riches. If you like disingenuousness & reckless threats. Mainly, it’s just embarrassing./1. irishtimes.com/opinion/we-mus…
“We will of course have to consider all our options” is some of the most threatening diplomatic language ever used by governments.

For it to appear in such an article, by two UK cabinet ministers, is both disturbing & a disgrace. /2.
To get to grips what’s going on, we need to recall the centrality of Ireland/NI to Brexit, Mr Johnson’s political survival & geopolitical interests orders of magnitude more significant than the GB-NI sausage trade.

In ‘Irish Toast’, I do just that👇/3.

rebootgb.today/opinions/the-u…
Read 8 tweets
2 Jul
Covid. UK well-being. What the heck’s up with the government? A 🧵.

There’ll be a public health disaster. Serious, mass, chronic illness. For many years. On top of 100K+ deaths. If this👇continues.

@BorisJohnson & @sajidjavid say ‘re-open’. There’s no economic need. So why?/1.
The country can well afford to continue, for many more months if necessary, to use large scale, government deficit spending to support all sectors of the economy & workers unable to go out to earn a living. /2.
That’s because there’s no inflation risk to the direct creation & spending of the many hundreds of billions of £ needed to pay for that.

Why?

Bear with me. /3.
Read 20 tweets
2 Jul
Covid-19:

(a) vaccination rate: at least one dose /1.
Covid-19:

(b) vaccination rate: two/ all doses /2.
Covid-19:

(c) total (cumulative) deaths per million population /3.
Read 4 tweets
1 Jul
No ‘magic money tree’ @Andrew_Adonis.

But heavy govt deficit spending (in the right areas) is entirely appropriate & beneficial for an economy operating below the capacity of its real resources to produce.

The problem is, Brexit’s shredding that capacity. /1.
For example: Brexit-induced labour & skills shortages, friction & barriers to productive economic activity, increased costs through the above & £ weakness … all at the same time as very high deficit spending. That’s where Weimar or Zimbabwe comparisons become real. /2.
The Covid (temporary) part of the deficit spending is vital. So is a major, longer term govt deficit funded investment in the economy. Unless the UK is to sink further into relative impoverishment. /3.
Read 6 tweets
29 Jun
For those of us who remember East Berlin in the 1980s this, from Tesco in Milton Keynes 40 years later, looks eerily familiar. Although the colour photography is superior.

It’s what happens when ideologues set about systemically wrecking the prosperity & well-being a country.
Photo from @ChrisKimberley.
Read 4 tweets
25 Jun
Russia’s in the news again. As is the re-emergence of a fantasy, from Germany & France, of a western “reset” with President Putin. The UK has been guilty of the same. So has the US. President Biden looks to be clearer sighted. No more wishful thinking, please. A (long)🧵 /1.
That requires a realistic assessment of Russia as it is, not as some members of the Euro-Atlantic Alliance might hope it to be. And clarity about what needs to be done, & how, to protect & promote Alliance interests. /2.
Understand what you’re dealing with. Russia is run by the people who own it. Principally an elite of a few dozen people, largely dominated by ex-KGB officials with a world view formed during Soviet days. Vladimir Putin is at the apex & calls the shots. /3.
Read 37 tweets

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