Thread by @DunkleCodyWX

#Elsa has pretty much done nothing but confuse meteorologists over the last 48 hours. The storm has acted in ways that were rather unexpected, and this is why forecast models are having a hard time handling the storm and therefore why intensify and forecast cones… (1/5)#tropics

have been so inconsistent. From rapidly intensifying in the MDR to moving 29 mph and still having a (somewhat) stacked core, to falling apart structurally and then exploding convection so much that it misleads most meteorologists into believing the storm… (2/5) #wxtwitter

was starting to intensify again when in reality it was only a CCC and the primary LLC was collapsing as a new one formed to the east and started moving southwest instead of northwest as it should have been given the steering flow in the area. Then it clears it’s CCC and… (3/5)

redevelops a CDO and seems to be wrapping up again. Hours later and the storm is not only weakening again but now broadening. This has been spectacular to watch, frankly, and I can’t wait until the TCR comes out for this storm. So much can and will be learned from Elsa. (4/5)

There is still a chance that the storm can reorganize and re-intensify as it approaches the southern Cuban coast as it has ample time alongside great OHC and a stronger anticyclone in the upper levels to help vent the system. Stay tuned for your local weather updates! (5/5)