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Most recents (10)

While we have some time, it's time for a severe weather thread on what could be upcoming next week/weekend.

Major global models are showing signals of a potent severe threat in the Central US again within the next week.

#uswx #weather #wxtwitter
Since our last post, thermodynamics have improved greatly on the deterministic output, in addition, there is way better ensemble agreement with most of them showing much more SigSevere signals.
Overall, thermodynamics and kinematics have improved considerably.
It seems as though that deterministic output is showing some more potential on Saturday than most ensemble members.
However, both outputs are agreeing the major day being Friday the 22nd.
Read 13 tweets
What is a ‘#stingjet’? The jets get their name from their resemblance to the sting in a scorpion’s tail, spotted as they develop on satellite images, where the end of the so-called cold conveyor is marked by a hook-shaped cloud with a point at the end.…
A strong jet stream can generate a new storm every day or two as
a narrow, focused region of extremely strong winds embedded within the larger area of strong winds and lasting just a few hours, potentially in #StormEunice #stingjet #wxtwitter.
Satellite analysis of post-tropical storm Ophelia on October 16, 2017. Note the branches of “banded cloud head” pushed towards the SW Ireland, indicating that the #stingjet structure is likely developed. Source: EUMETSAT
Read 6 tweets
DeepMind has just published a paper in Nature on doing nowcasting using neural networks. This paper uses generative models.

How does this compare to previous precipitation nowcasting models from Google?…
The first attempt was a U-Net implementation consisting of (1) spatial downsampler +CNN (2) spatial upsampler + CNN with skip connections to maintain knowledge at different scales.

This bettered the performance of optical flow methods, but not by much.
#2 MetNet ( predicts probability of rainfall amounts > some value. It has: (1) spatial downsampler and CNN (2) temporal LSTM (3) spatial aggregator with self-attention to learn which part of input to focus.
Read 6 tweets
Please, Twitter, hire me to edit your draft headlines so you stop embarrassing yourselves concerning hurricanes.

It's not "another" storm. It's the same storm #Ida, after it's been a hurricane but is still a hazard until it is well clear of land.

#HWStormWatch #WxTwitter
There's 3 problems with Twitter's headline.

1. It's absent of punctuation. They use it in other headlines.

2. This causes confusion bc many people don't know how a post-TC is named.

3. Maybe it was deliberate, to generate clicks.
Imma assume it was an innocent mistake on the part of Twitter. Occam's Razor.

If it was deliberate, then it's one of many examples I've seen over the years where potentially saving lives is less important to them than Twitter marketing.
Read 10 tweets
1/7 (comment on recent severe storms in Europe)
Is the warming climate our biggest problem or lack of proper #socialscience research? Recently on #wxtwitter and in the media you can read that every single severe weather outbreak in Europe is explained by #climatechange. Did ...
2/7 ... everyone really forget that severe hail / tornado / wind / flooding have occurred on a regular basis in the past climate in Europe? Warming climate is an important problem and we should work together on limiting its negative effects, but our current bigger issue ...
3/7 ... is that Europe is still not prepared for dealing with severe weather outbreaks. We consistently advance predictability of these events but we omit an important aspect of social sciences in this topic. So much work needs to be done on improving society's severe weather ...
Read 8 tweets
#Elsa is poised to landfall in #Cuba today, with TS force winds and heavy rain in tow. Flooding is a major concern. Next in line is the Florida coastline. If the core of this storm survives Cuba, re-intensification is possible before landfall in Florida. (1/4) #tropics #wxtwitter
Attached to the first tweet are graphics that give some important information for those in the path of the storm and show the anticipated track and intensity. Do not underestimate a TS. Much damage to property can be expected associated with the wind and flooding. (2/4)
A snippet in regards to the storm *after* it moves through Cuba:

If Elsa can retain her core as it moves through Cuba, the storm faces a favorable trough interaction for ventilation and support of some deepening in pressure. Shear will likely play a factor, however (3/4) this
Read 4 tweets
#Elsa has pretty much done nothing but confuse meteorologists over the last 48 hours. The storm has acted in ways that were rather unexpected, and this is why forecast models are having a hard time handling the storm and therefore why intensify and forecast cones… (1/5)#tropics
have been so inconsistent. From rapidly intensifying in the MDR to moving 29 mph and still having a (somewhat) stacked core, to falling apart structurally and then exploding convection so much that it misleads most meteorologists into believing the storm… (2/5) #wxtwitter
was starting to intensify again when in reality it was only a CCC and the primary LLC was collapsing as a new one formed to the east and started moving southwest instead of northwest as it should have been given the steering flow in the area. Then it clears it’s CCC and… (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
Ways to help those affected by severe weather yesterday across the South: a THREAD
#alwx #gawx #wxtwitter

Supply drive at Hale County High School / Middle School #alwx
Donating money or needed items to Calhoun County (info below) #alwx
Read 13 tweets
I love the Correlation Coffectin for this very reason...It depicts rain/snow/mix precip types very well! #wxtwitter #njwx
R/M is sleet BTW
Read 3 tweets
It looks like we are about to get NAM'd #wxtwitter
This means the latest 00z run has quicker transfer to offshore low meaning a colder scenario.
Can't post images it seems but NAM has 10+ for much of NNJ.
Read 3 tweets

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