We need to learn to live with COVID-19 and its variants. This appears to be what bellweather economies seem to be saying. While we are all aware of the US opening up, almost entirely in July, Singapore, and UK stand out in particular. Singapore is moving away from a...(1/7)
...“Covid-Zero” strategy of completely stamping out the virus from its country through strong border controls/aggressive contact tracing/social distancing. Singapore is now moving to a strategy that focussess on reopening its economy through mass-vaccinations with...(2/7)
...a broad assumption that COVID-19 would not completely exit the country for the next few years. Singapore also senses that it is falling behind its western counterparts on the recovery trajectory. It plans to live with the virus that would be contained through...(3/7)
...vaccinations. The reopening of its economy therefore would be tied to vaccination milestones and vaccinated individuals will be given more allowances to travel and move around.
Yet another economy, appears to be doing the same, but in very different conditions. UK's PM...(4/7)
...Boris Johnson announced yesterday that social distancing and face mask rules are likely to end on 19th July as the country moves towards reopening. This is despite the fact that UK daily infections are on the rise. The UK has been heavily criticised for opening up an...(5/7)
...economy even before its COVID-wave has peaked. Note here that this confidence is probably on the back of the fact that daily deaths in the UK are in single digits, despite daily infections north of 27k. If one ties-up the data in the UK, it seems evident that...(6/7)
...vaccinations are leading to much lower fatalities. Note here that 86% of UK adults (67% of pop) have received at least one shot of the vaccine and 64% (50% of pop) have received both doses of the vaccine. (7/7)

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More from @arjungn80

7 Jul
Immediately after a sharp runup in crude, a drop appears to have puzzled some. The drop in crude appears to be largely on the back of a moderation in the earlier run-up in price. Heres a quick backdrop on the entire issue. During the pandemic, the OPEC+ countries...(1/12)
...agreed to production cuts that would span a broad 2Y period of May'20 to Apr'22. This was to keep crude prices from collapsing on the back of a sharp drop in demand caused by the pandemic. The production cuts peaked to around 10.3mn barrels per day (mbpd) in June'20,...(2/12)
...coinciding with the peak of COVID-19 globally. In Jul'20, it was agreed to taper the production cuts to 7.5mbps till Apr'21, as demand started picking up. All of this went broadly as per plan. In Apr'21 it was decided that the production cuts would be tapered...(3/12)
Read 12 tweets
5 Jul
India and its oil-dynamics. We spoke last week about the two key known unknowns that the global and domestic markets were closely tracking. This week, we take a look at India's oil dynamics. Before we get to the specifics, it is very important to note here that a rise in...(1/9)
...oil prices in itself does not matter. It is why they rise that is of more importance. If the increase in oil prices is because of an increase in demand, then it remains a positive. This is because like a rising tide lifts all boats, the increase in oil prices...(2/9)
...(in this scenario) is a result of growing demand globally and domestically. It is because of this that the secular rise in oil prices to $76 in 2007 from $23 in 2003 was not seen to have any negative macro stability implications. However, if the rise in prices is on...(3/9)
Read 9 tweets

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