I want to talk a bit about this magic number, GDP CO2 intensity. It's a purely technocratic construct, but it measures something important.

Take the total carbon emissions of humanity in kg, and divide by the total size of the economy, in $.

You get grams of CO2 per dollar made
Grams of CO2 per dollar made is the essential problem.

We can either reduce the number of dollars made, degrowth, or we can reduce the amount of CO2 per dollar through renewable energy, energy efficiency, and maybe technologies like carbon capture.

260 grams per $: it's a lever
Now let's talk about carbon budgets. Earth's natural processes bind about 16 gigatons of CO2 per year, roughly 2 tons per human.

Humanity emits about 40 gt per year say 5 tons per person. Top 10% Americans are at about 70 tons per year, a quarter million dollars earned at 260g/$
So 40gt emitted, 16gt absorbed, 24gt is left in circulation in the atmosphere. We don't know exactly how much CO2 we can have in the atmosphere before things break *horribly* - that science goes by the name "carbon budget". 1.5C is 10 years at 24gt a year?
So this is where we are wedged: $250,000 earned per year will typically emit about 70 tons of CO2. Maybe less if you're an SF author, more for a metal worker.

Getting from 70 tons to 2 tons is going to *kill* the rich.

India is at 2 tons *on average* including all the rich.
What that implies is that if Americans and Europeans and Chinese lived like Indians - and remember, India has 50% of the world's child poverty, and many other ills - the world would be sustainable.

Mexico is at almost 2x sustainable CO2 emissions. *Mexico*.

You see the issue?
We are completely fucked.

I know how to get us out of this hole but nobody wants to hear what I have to say about this. I will summarise the challenge and the solution in five tweets.
The challenge is to provide high quality of life to nearly all humans within our ecological limit.

To get there we have to deconstruct "quality of life" because no existing model (maybe Bhutan?) can work in this context. We need a radical restructuring of our "needs" first. 1/5
What do humans need? Humans need a safe place to reproduce when they are ready, and birth control until then.

Humans are *massively* interested in primal enjoyment: sex, drugs, making music, good food.

Humans are mostly driven by security not by ambition: safe people chill. 2/5
Can we provide secure access to enjoyment and child-rearing at 2 tons of CO2 per person?

Yes, very easily. The key is secure land tenure, and basic income. Reduce anxiety, reduce incentives to stockpile wealth against a rainy day. Kerala in India has 95% literacy on $1/day. 3/5
The technology base has to be exquisitely well designed: stainless steel, polypropylene, glass, aluminium, bamboo, hemp *and very little else*. Items made for permanent use, "melt down" recycle at end of life.

Electronics built to last like loudspeakers are. Sustainable CERN 4/5
What you are left with is a world of primal peasant farmers with simple laptop computers, with some cities to generate the innovation and make the solar panels.

There is no middle class. There are no cars. Everything grinds to a halt, but nobody has to die.

The math works. 5/5
The other approach is that we max out innovation in renewable energy technologies, and try and get to solar powered transatlantic flights really really fast.

That's extremely risky, because of the long transition times: atmosphere is cooked before the emissions can be halted.
So what this leaves is the trajectory we are really on now: geoengineering.

@cascio turned me on to this reality about 10 years ago, "desperate people do desperate things" files.howtolivewiki.com/TRUTHANDBEAUTY… and I don't think his analysis has been bettered, maybe just refined.

Best watch!
Relocating entire populations is slowly becoming a thing in people's minds

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More from @leashless

6 Jul
Yeah, fuck this for a game of soldiers.

You know how we got into this mess? Dumb fuckers who *knew* global warming was The Crisis of Our Age and prioritised trivial social justice concerns over planetary survival.

Evil will triumph because good was stupid.

This gets bad now.
If 2020's Black Lives Matter protests had been about fossil fuel driven global warming annihilating agriculture in Africa, a hell of a lot more black lives would have been saved - along with lives of every other kind.

American police being pigs is a confined issue. CO2 is Famine
And I am *fucking over* being polite about this.

your. cause. is. irrelevant. garbage.

We are *unbelievably fucked* on climate, and its going to exterminate hundreds of millions, poorest first, in nearly all of the scenarios we face going forwards.

I do not lack imagination.
Read 7 tweets
5 Jul
Am I a climate activist dreaming he is a tech CEO, or a tech CEO dreaming he was a climate activist?

How many years do I have to make money to convert into humanitarian research and materiel at this point?

I'd been gambling on another 5 years. I don't know if we have that long.
We could get *completely* smashed flat by a genocide-level heat event in a poor country, one where people can't cool down in their cars when the AC gives out, and tens of millions could die.

The infrastructure for "walk out of the heat" has not yet even started seriously.
I know how to do it, roughly - umbrellas for shade as people walk, hexayurt rest stations, trucks with water. Shopping trolleys and similar for the disabled, old, and young.

You can move millions if you keep trucking in water to the people marching.

And they need a place to go.
Read 5 tweets
5 Jul
Within a degree of 50C / 122F in Canada and Oregon.

When it was India in 2019 it was apocalyptic horror, cities without universal tap water baking in that heat.

But Canada, that’s a whole other disaster zone all together. That’s not a “climate genocide” warning, but extinction.
I know what it would take to fix this: a world in which near perfect sharing of resources among all humans, probably rooted in basic income/resource economics.

Permanent state of emergency. No political “ism” has ever been anything close to this goal. It is like Lifeboat Ethics.
It’s like running a world with a permanent spending cap: no more than $7600 spending per person, unless what you are buying is proven Carbon Negative.

That’s literally the limit, at current GDP intensity. 2 tons per person at 260 grams of CO2 per dollar spent on average. No room
Read 4 tweets
3 Jul
I have climate angst.

20 years ago, I figured out three things were not going to save us from climate change:

1) reducing consumption
2) renewable energy
3) social change

I started my lonely watch: planning how to protect 300m climate refugees.

I had no resources or support.
What have I gotten done in that 20 years?

1) hexayurt.com ultra cheap housing
2) resiliencemaps.org *excellent* design matrix for infrastructure
3) thecuttingmachinery.com psychospiritual support method
4) mattereum.com seeds of a resource allocator
(I did other stuff too - helped launch Ethereum, worked on pandemic flu and nuclear bombs, but anyway)

I think we've got less than ten years before large, populous regions have to be evacuated in summer due to uninhabitable heat.

You just have to relocate the entire population.
Read 7 tweets
8 Jun
Hard to explain it to people: since 2002 I've been working flat out, as hard as a human can, to pre-position food, shelter, housing, and water for the hundreds of millions of people that climate change inevitably displaces later this century.

Even @mattereum serves this cause.
Even now people are in super deep denial about how hard climate change is going to hit the world. They're still thinking "songbirds migrate away" not "a holocaust of global famine that hits subsistence farmers hardest of all."

CO2 is still through the roof. Hard landing approach
myhopeforthe.world lays out the plan: housing, then water purification, cooking. Right now, in the background, I'm working on refugee clothing and beds. Cooking I figured out mostly years back. Housing, the hexayurt, thrives. Resiliencemaps.org is totally transformative
Read 19 tweets
2 Jun
So we've built it. @Mattereum I mean. Stage one is basically done: we've got customers selling NFTs on @OpenSea, backed by physical items, and new people are coming on board slowly but steadily. It is a business.

Constant pressure to issue the token and to THE BIG ICO like 2018.
A lot of the other companies in the NFT space have raised *extremely* large amounts of money on very, very thin product plans. We recognise bubble thinking. I'm not 100% sure the "just take the money" approach produces much working product in the long run, but people do their way
What we're planning on doing is this: we're going to keep putting great physical assets on chain until the NFT space wakes up and says "oh my god this is *exactly* how the blockchain takes over the world: ACTUAL GOODS AND SERVICES!"

And at that point, fundraising will be easy.
Read 33 tweets

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