@DmitriTrenin has on op-ed on Russia's new national security strategy in Kommersant: kommersant.ru/doc/4888683?fb…. Argues that historically Russia collapsed not because it was externally threatened but because the political elites lost the people's trust.
In other words, the key threat to Russia's national security is actually its own (low quality) political elite. Hard to disagree!
Trenin calls for a "meritocratic rotation" of the ruling elites to avoid this scenario. The problem is that it is difficult to have a meritocratic rotation in the absence of a democratic rotation. And you can't have a democratic rotation in the absence of democratic institutions.
And I guess it would take a reasonable (high quality) elite to build up democratic institutions. Catch 22.
How about an alternative developmental path: slow rot, followed by collapse, followed by chaos, followed by tyranny, followed by slow rot, followed by collapse, followed by chaos, followed by tyranny. At least, very predictable!
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