Thread by @GLNoronha

Yesterday, the E3 (France, Germany, UK) upgraded their concern level over Iran's nuclear program from "deeply concerned" to "grave concern". Forgive my yawn.

The E3 has played into Iran's nuclear extortion scheme for the past two years and lost all credibility w/ Iran. Thread🧵:

2. The first of nearly a dozen statements started in May 2019 when Iran first breached its JCPOA nuclear commitments. The first chiding statement clocked in at "great concern".

But in the same breath, the E3 promised to keep pursuing trade with Iran.

new-york-un.diplo.de/un-en/news-cor…

3. This immediately undermined any effect of their light chiding. The E3 told Iran there would be no economic consequence for breaking the JCPOA's conditions, and in fact they would redouble their efforts to bolster their economy.

"Concern" was supposed to serve as a deterrent.

4. But the Iranians wisely understood that "concern" was just that - they could keep advancing their nuclear escalation and it would only earn rhetorical rebukes, but no economic consequence.

In July 2019, Iran tested the E3 again by abandoning further nuclear limits.

5. How did the E3 respond? By upgrading their concern level from "great" to "extremely", and calling for dialogue and de-escalation "from all sides" - because, of course, U.S. sanctions made Iran do this.

However, they also started warning Iran...(!)

gov.uk/government/new…

6. The E3 threatened that they might use the JCPOA's Dispute Resolution Mechanism (DRM) -the first step to snapping back sanctions - if Iran pursued further nuclear steps.

Of course, Iran knew the E3 didn't have any desire to take actual steps to impose consequences on them...

7. So in September 2019, Iran did their 3rd set of nuclear escalations, and also launched ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia for good measure. Cue a strong chiding from the E3!

We were happier to see this statement was better than the other two, and...

gov.uk/government/new…

8. The E3 finally called for a new deal, and "condemned" Iran, but they didn't do anything to incentivize Iran to get back to the table, such as imposing economic sanctions or starting snapback.

Again, it was strong words and chidings with no consequences. There's a theme here.

9. You know how this goes...November 2019 rolls around. Iran takes a new step of nuclear escalation. The E3 says they are extremely concerned. No new sanctions. At this point, they are just watering down the effect of their concern where it's meaningless.

gov.uk/government/new…

10. December 2019. The E3 warn Iran they will initiate the DRM if Iran continues its nuclear escalation. At last a glimmer of hope that Europe will do something.

January 2020: Iran takes a major step on January 5th to breach its entire nuclear commitments. How will Europe react?

11. With more talk. The E3 live up to their threat to initiate the DRM 10 days later, but they caveat that they won't use it to perform snapback, defeating the whole point of the tool. Now they've just turned the DRM into a forum for formally talking and complaining more to Iran.

12. Europe demands to Iran: Take our threats seriously! We mean it! Or else...we'll use a forum to show you how concerned we are so that you'll behave finally!

Fast-forward to June. After lots of talking, the E3 "urge Iran to cooperate". Why would they?

diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-fil…

13. In the same statement, the E3 say they don't support snapping back sanctions - the best tool the E3 has to actually make Iran listen to them and cooperate.

At this point it's been a year of strongly-worded statements from the E3 with zero results to show from their side.

14. Over the next year (from June 2020 to now), Europe continues to hector Iranian nuclear escalations with zero effect - the regime continues to advance its program and take escalatory actions.

Contrast with Israeli actions to set back their program, and U.S sanctions which...

15. prevent Iran from even having the funds to procure as many of their advanced centrifuges as they want.

But the E3 has been reduced to irrelevance here because they never backed their words with actions of any significance, and Iran knows it.

16. So the next time you see a "strong", "deep", "grave", or "extreme" concern from the E3 about Iran's nuclear program, you might as well ignore it - these statements distract from the fact that Europe won't ever take any difficult steps to actually prevent a nuclear Iran.

17/end. Considering that European businesses follow the lead of U.S. sanctions policy, it barely makes sense for the E3 to be involved in these negotiations at all.

The countries that matter for Iran's nuclear program are the US, Israel, Iran, and maybe Russia - but not the E3.