Thread by @StephenGutowski

There are several reasons to believe the gun sales spike is not driving the murder increase. In fact, it seems more likely the exact opposite is true. I talked about this is a member exclusive over at @TheReloadSite. I hope @chrislhayes gives it a read. thereload.com/analysis-gun-s…

https://twitter.com/NickFondacaro/status/1412957872980385795

For one, as the chart @chrislhayes puts up in this segment shows, what we call a gun sales spike is actually a gun background check spike. Because that's our best measure for how many guns are being sold.

That should give you insight into the people buying all those guns: namely that they can pass a background check. It's rather unlikely that a significant number of people who can pass an FBI background check to buy a gun then immediately turned around and murder someone.

The ATF tracks how long it takes for a crime gun to go from its last point of sale to it being recovered at a crime scene. It usually hovers near a decade. In 2019, the average was 8.29 years. So, it's very unusual for guns to go from purchase to crime scene in under a year.

Of course, somebody who is watching the incredible uncertainty brought on by the pandemic and murder spike that followed it may well be motivated to buy a gun. That thesis seems more plausible than a significant number of people without records suddenly becoming murderers.

I go into more detail on all of this in the post. Reload members can read the full post here: thereload.com/analysis-gun-s…