Important new research about postcards to voters, with evidence they can backfire & *reduce* turnout among recipients. I hope national groups that have used postcards as a central part of their volunteer (& donor) recruitment read this & take it seriously
The authors suggest the postcards' focus on a down ballot race may have "distracted" recipients, causing them to ignore other sources of info about more important congressional races also on that (2018) ballot for which they otherwise would have showed up to vote.
Hmm... maybe?
I'm more inclined to see these results as potentially in line w/fact that feeling like you "don't know enough" is one reason people choose not to vote/get involved.A postcard pitch can remind me how much I don't know, & who shd I trust, & where even start? prri.org/research/ameri…
A quick read thru the hashtag #PostcardsToVoters will show goodhearted souls currently pouring time & energy into this technique, seeing it as a way to effect political change. Longtime followers will know this is a topic on which I have *thoughts*
... which eventually became this piece, advocating for intentional & relational thinking by grassroots groups & volunteers, both when choosing strategic goals & when choosing tactics forgeorganizing.org/article/postca…
If volunteers are just executing a one-way, one-off outreach strategy from on high, it really is just the gigification of campaign labor. In contrast, knocking on doors volunteers *learn* from the interaction: & then there's an election & they learn even more from local results
Most research on campaign effects looks at impact 1) on votes cast 2) in that election. Understandably! but local political life isn't a controlled study, or a 1-round game. that's why research asking broader questions👇about routes of impact is so welcome
It worries me that some otherwise smart & well-informed observers seem to believe that a meaningful portion of the actors who made the slogan/goal Defund the Police prominent, live within the progressive grant funding universe. I think that’s wrong in 2 different ways. [quick 🧵]
Who is the assumed “everyone involved” here? I think this may be a case where some of the Twitter Isn’t Real Life crowd are forgetting that Twitter Isn’t Real Life.
Out in the real world, who embraced the slogan/goal of defund the police? 1) a very diffuse array of young local activists, many stepping into public/political activism for 1st time, for whom it resonated w/their vision of what a better community would look like; 2) RW amplifiers
A tale of two very different kinds of anti-Peduto voters👇 (As a reminder, PA has closed primaries: Tony Moreno's strength among registered Dems in the precincts where Trump did best is both unsurprising* & 👀)
But Moreno's support in Trump-loving Pgh precincts could only carry him so far, given that nearly 4x as many mayoral votes were cast in precincts where Donald Trump got under 5% of the vote than in precincts where he cracked 50%. [Because A: it's a Dem primary, and B: Pittsburgh]
This whole thread fr @cmMcConnaughy is essential, re: pitfalls to avoid in analyzing protests+politics. & this pt👇 is esp. relevant as we reach the painful milestone of one year since the murder of George Floyd, & a flood of one-year-on assessments of the protest wave begins
When I am reconstructing the past in my day job as a historian, I don't expect either the underlying drivers, or the periodization of significant socio-political shifts to be visible to the people living out & furthering those changes. Societal change just doesn't work that way
Often the shifts that most rapidly come to seem unremarkable—because they are overdetermined, reinforced by multiple converging dynamics at once—are most important.
Just because developments feel predictable doesn't mean they were predictable. This future was not always priced in
The underlying piece here imho is a shift of political weight away from the unions that represent people who build hospitals, towards the unions that (seek to) represent people who labor in them
Health/service sector unions, w/their diverse member base & breadth of priorities that follow, are far better positioned to lead & benefit from coalitions w/the range of groups & actors newly mobilizing around racial disparities, police accountability, & more.
Also: this👇
The developers-trades-professional/managerial class alliance that's been the modal version of Democratc urban power sharing for ~30 ys had few incentives to support political *or* workplace organizing that would empower low-wage workers. That's been costly
Ok I know I tweet so much that, like monkeys w/typewriters, I'm bound to be prescient occasionally but: I will say this thread holds up pretty well 3 ys later