Thread by @FionaMullenCY

I have a really horrible feeling that the gravitational pull is towards annexation. So choice in 5 years’ time will not be 2 states v federal #cyprob solution but 2 states v formal annexation. New EU land border with Turkey anyone? How will the EU protect its TC-EU citizens then?

https://twitter.com/cyprusmail/status/1413077984152588291

Am also somewhat horrified that quite a few Greek Cypriots don’t give a flying f**k about this scenario, which will inevitably see their “fellow brother compatriot Turkish Cypriots we have no problem with” locked up for protesting + generally thrown to the wolves. 2/

But I also think this is where EU will find its strategic interests diverging from the (Greek Cypriot) Rep of #Cyprus. Because who’s going to end up defending Greek Cypriots from this new hard land border? It isn’t going to be the Greek Cypriot National Guard, let’s face it. 3/

So what do you do? Barring miracles federal solution isn’t coming. Two state solution banned. Yet de facto annexation is already happening: Turkish ministries announce + implement policies. (It wasn’t like that before.) Next election will be 💰 even more than this one. 4/

I think the international community faces 3 choices:
1. Pretend there’s still life in a federal settlement but accept they will later have to respond to a new Turkey-EU land border in Cyprus.
2. Side with Turkey-Tatar on 2 states (ain’t gonna happen)
3. Artful middle way.
5/

That artful middle way involves “parking” the issue while East Med relations mature with 1) the use of moratoriums on sensitive issues (I have a wishlist + IMHO are easier to negotiate than CBMs).
6/

And 2) Engaging Cypriots properly, professionally, democratically in a structured debate about what they actually want.
Here is how you do that. NB you can’t do it on the cheap. 7/

If at the end of this process Cypriots from both sides say “we still want to live together + this is how we’d like to do it”, bingo: you have just had a much more democratic, modern and sustainable #cyprob solution proves than anything in the past 50 years. 8/

If on the other hand they say “we’d like to be good neighbours instead + we’re ready for a referendum on that”, bingo: you have your democratic legitimacy for the “never ever” solution that keeps Spain et al on board. 9/

God knows I don’t want the second option. But please understand it’s time to get real. We need from NOW to avoid annexation. We need to do it in a way that will work better than letters to UNSC and which has legitimacy. IMHO what I outlined is the only way. Ends 10/10 #cyprob

*process not proves

https://twitter.com/FionaMullenCY/status/1413096685312610314

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